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The politics centered around Beştepe and Silivri are insufficient to sustain the government. Erdoğan can only go so far with the judiciary. An opposition that fails to focus on the struggle against the regime will once again serve as a lifeline for Erdoğan.

Beştepe in Crisis: Silivri Is No Solution
Photo: Depo Photos

Yaşar AYDIN

Erdoğan addresses AKP supporters two or three times a week. One of these speeches is held at a provincial congress. The provincial congresses lack enthusiasm, substance and purpose. Few in the hall even listen to the President's speech. In the background, you can always hear young people chanting rehearsed slogans. His words barely make it past the lectern, let alone reach the masses. The crisis in the country is so deep and severe that people no longer have the energy to listen to Erdoğan. Furthermore, no solution is in sight. Aware of the situation, the government has now postponed its promised relief to the end of 2025.

A few key figures illustrate the severity of the situation: Consumer credit loans reached 1 trillion 945 billion 347 million 600 thousand liras. Personal credit card debt reached TL 1.83 trillion. Commercial loans reached TL 2 trillion 106 billion 156 million 734 thousand, while the balance of credit cards reached TL 2 trillion 340 billion 578 million 377 thousand. According to these figures, the number of non-performing loans and credit cards increased.

A significant portion of the population is burdened with debt. Their income is insufficient to cover even basic necessities. Minimum wage earners and pensioners account for over a third of the population. Their wages fall below the hunger line.

This picture alone is enough to strip away the government's facade. Adding fundamental issues like democracy and justice to the mix, we see a government that has hit the bottom. This failure and loss of confidence explain why the heavily promoted ‘Turkey Without Terrorism’ campaign failed to generate the momentum the government had hoped for.

The government’s only remaining vision for the future hinges on regime change in Syria. But recent developments have shown that neither Trump, Netanyahu, nor Coloni are willing to accommodate Ankara’s demands. The government is also struggling in Syria.

Wherever you look, from the atmosphere in the congress, to the performance of ministers, to the criticism of those outside the administration, you see a structure that is falling apart. This is precisely the reason for the uneasy atmosphere that dominates all the rooms of the palace in Beştepe.

THE CLIMATE OF FEAR IS NOT ENOUGH

The government, unable to answer any of the country's problems, found the solution in increasing pressure on the people. Trustee appointments to municipalities continue, military officers are dismissed, and detentions and arrests continue. The government is trying to crush anyone who raises his head. It is in a show of power that it can do anything. While this policy initially had some impact, its effectiveness has waned as repression extends to all segments of society.

Recent opinion polls show that almost the entire society agrees that this judicial process is political and does not support it. The fact that 80 per cent of the society said ‘no’ to the dismissal of the lieutenants despite the messages of support from Bahçeli and Erdoğan is a sufficient example alone.

On the other hand, the fact that İBB Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu's testimony at the Çağlayan Courthouse turned into a show of unity by the opposition shows that things are not going well for the government. The government's politics of repression is about to hit itself like a boomerang.

TRIAL TIME FOR THE OPPOSITION

The government has launched an all-out assault. This process is also important in terms of showing the limits of the government. It is negotiating from a position of weakness.

It appears that there is almost no possibility for Erdoğan or any other name from the People's Alliance to win the elections even under these conditions. The government’s only hope is that the opposition will once again make a critical mistake in the near future. There is no doubt that the biggest mistake will be the debate on ‘who should be the presidential candidate’. Instead of focussing on the struggle against the regime, the race for the candidacy of those whose names are mentioned today or those who will be added cannot go beyond throwing a lifeline to Erdoğan once again. It is worth remembering that the potential for the opposition to make such a mistake is still very strong.

Beştepe and Silivri are two symbolic places of the regime. As of today, these two structures together with the ‘insiders’ are far from having enough impact to sustain the government. This is as far as Erdoğan and the judiciary can go, no further.

Note: This text has been translated from Beştepe krizde Silivri çare değil published in BirGün newspaper on February 3, 2025.