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Minimum wage negotiations will begin in December. The minimum wage, which is expected to be determined after four meetings, will be finalised by 31 December 2025. Türk-İş announced that it will not be participating in the Minimum Wage Determination Commission this year, which consists of a total of 15 representatives, five each from the workers, employers and government. We have compiled the leading wage increase scenarios for the minimum wage.

Countdown to the minimum wage marathon: What are the possible pay rise scenarios?
Photo: AA

Negotiations to determine the 2026 minimum wage will begin in December.

The Minimum Wage Determination Commission, whose first meeting date is not yet known, is expected to convene this week.

The minimum wage determined by the commission, consisting of worker, employer and government representatives, will be set by 31 December and will come into effect on 1 January.

The commission will begin its work hosted by the Ministry of Labour and Social Security.

At the first meeting to be held at the Ministry, it is anticipated that a timetable will be set out detailing how the process will proceed. Subsequent meetings will address the parties' demands, economic data, analyses and the studies prepared.

TÜRK-İŞ NOT AT THE TABLE

At the first meeting planned for this week, workers will be represented by the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (Türk-İş), while employers will be represented by the Confederation of Turkish Employers' Unions (TİSK).

However, worker representatives will not be at the table this year. TÜRK-İŞ argues that the structure of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission needs to be reorganised.

Türk-İş's decision will not directly affect the commission.

However, for any change to be made in this direction, the existing legislation needs to be reassessed. According to current laws, minimum wage negotiations must be completed by the end of December.

The 15-member commission meets with at least 10 members present, and decisions are taken by majority vote.

FOUR MEETINGS ARE EXPECTED

The commission is scheduled to hold four meetings before reaching a final decision. Decisions are taken by majority vote.

The new minimum wage is expected to be finalised and announced to the public by 31 December, and the determined figure will be valid as of 1 January 2026.

According to the law, the minimum wage is determined by the Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which consists of 15 members, including five representatives from the workers, employers and government.

The Commission meets on dates set in December to determine the new minimum wage.

Chaired by a member appointed by the Ministry, the Minimum Wage Determination Commission convenes with the participation of at least 10 members, and decisions are made by majority vote.

In the event of a tie, the opinion of the side on which the chairperson sits is accepted as the majority.

WHAT IS THE CURRENT MINIMUM WAGE?

The minimum wage is currently applied as a gross monthly wage of 26,005.50 TL and a net wage of 22,104.67 TL for a worker.

From the employer's perspective, the total cost of an employee amounts to 30,556.46 TL. Of this amount, 26,005.50 TL is the gross salary, 4,030.85 TL is the social security contribution, and 520.11 TL is the employer's unemployment insurance contribution.

IŞIKHAN: I BELIEVE IT WILL BE AT AN OPTIMAL LEVEL

Minister of Labour and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan stated in his latest announcement regarding the minimum wage, "This year, we will once again convene our Minimum Wage Determination Commission at the beginning of December to meet with our worker and employer representatives. Our primary priority in this process is for the parties to reach a consensus through social dialogue. I believe that the Commission will determine an optimal level that both protects the welfare of our workers and takes into account the production and employment capacity of our employers."

POSSIBLE INCREASE SCENARIOS

The scenarios for the minimum wage, which closely affects millions of workers, are as follows:

20 per centIf the minimum wage is increased by 20 per cent, the net wage will rise to 26,584 TL and the gross wage to 31,206 TL.

23 per cent

In the 23% increase scenario, the net minimum wage would rise to 27,188 TL, and the gross wage to 31,986 TL.

25 per cent

In the event of a 25% increase, the net minimum wage for 2026 would be calculated as 27,630 TL, and the gross wage as 32,506 TL.

28.5 per cent

In the 28.5 per cent increase scenario, based on the year-end inflation forecast for 2025 specified in the Medium-Term Programme (MTP), the net wage is expected to be 28,404 TL and the gross wage 33,417 TL.

30 per cent

In a 30% increase scenario, the net minimum wage for 2026 is expected to be 28,735 TL, and the gross wage is expected to be 33,807 TL.

35 per cent

In the event of a 35 per cent increase, the net wage is expected to reach 29,841 TL and the gross wage 35,107 TL.

40 per cent

In the event of a 40 per cent increase, the net minimum wage in 2026 is expected to rise to 30,946 TL, while the gross wage is expected to reach 36,407 TL.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Asgari ücret maratonu için geri sayım: Olası zam senaryoları ne?, published in BirGün newspaper on December 1, 2025.