Crumbling in the ‘fortress’ provinces

Politics Service

After falling to second place for the first time since its founding in the latest local elections, the decline of the AKP continues. Widespread crises, especially the economic depression and deepening poverty are drawing reactions from broad segments of society, while the Palace administration fails to develop an argument that can win public consent.

The government has shaped its entire strategy around the developments in the Middle East, efforts to revive the resolution process, and fragmenting the opposition. Yet neither its tales of heroism in foreign policy nor the new Constitution debates at home have managed to convince the public.

Following the 19 March operations, the large and enthusiastic crowds at CHP rallies, particularly in Yozgat, Konya, and Bartın, signalled a demand for change. Recent opinion polls also revealed that the AKP is losing ground in the very provinces it once called its “fortresses.”

AKP LOSES VOTES IN EVERY PROVINCE

The results of a survey conducted by ORC Research between 11–13 June in Bursa, Kocaeli, Konya, Kayseri, Tekirdağ and Eskişehir with the question “If there were an election this Sunday” once again revealed the AKP’s decline. In Bursa, 2,490 participants were surveyed. The percentage of those saying they would vote for the AKP was 33.1. This figure was 39.1% in the 14 May elections, marking a notable 6-point drop.

A similar result emerged in Kocaeli. Based on responses from 1,970 participants, the AKP stood at 33.5%, down from 39.7% on 14 May, a nearly 6-point decrease. In Konya, one of the provinces where CHP held mass rallies, 2,320 people were surveyed and the AKP’s vote share was measured at 40.8%. This figure was 47.95% in the last general election, a 7-point drop.

In Kayseri, based on a survey with 2,150 participants, the AKP’s support stood at 34.5%, down from 40.72% in the May elections. In Tekirdağ, the AKP was stuck at 25% among 1,850 respondents, whereas the previous figure had been 30.73%. In Eskişehir, where 1,700 participants were surveyed, the AKP polled at 27%, down from 33.15% in the general election.

While the AKP lost an average of 6 points in these provinces, it is observed that CHP has increased its vote share by 6 points.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled “‘Kale’ dediği illerde eriyor” published in BirGün newspaper on June 16, 2025.