DEM, Gelecek, DEVA, İYİP and others forgot the regime: Politics that ignores the people will lose
Although the opposition’s infighting has pleased Erdoğan in recent days, the direction of real life shows that the situation is temporary. While the people say ‘the government must go’, those who put their own political interests first will lose.
How could Erdoğan stay in power for another term? This is the question that those who favour the continuation of the regime will most seek to answer over the next two years. Considering that even Erdoğan’s candidacy is not certain, trying to answer this question and shaping politics accordingly may not be seen as a very rational approach. But the fact that the ruling camp currently has no other candidate makes Erdoğan’s candidacy a compulsory choice. So let’s ask the question once again: how could Erdoğan win the election?
Despite the ‘Terror-Free Turkey’ process at home and the developments in Syria and Gaza abroad, the AKP-MHP bloc is far from having the strength to win another election. On the contrary, all public opinion polls show that Erdoğan loses against all potential opponents. The gap ranges between 15 and 20 points.
In the face of this picture, the one-man regime is pursuing a dual policy regarding the opposition. The first is full-court pressure, which includes arrests, investigations, and blackmail. The second is the tactic of dividing the opposition, even pitting them against each other.
IS ANTI-REGIME STANCE THE COMMON GROUND?
Although in different forms, opposition forces managed to take a common stance since the Constitutional Referendum held on 16 April 2017. This includes not only local elections but also the 2018 and 2023 presidential elections. The ruling camp, along with social opposition forces, failed to break apart the broad front extending from İYİP to DEM. Society was almost split 60 to 40 along the lines of opposition to the regime. The main axis of politics, the dividing line, became “anti-regime stance”. This situation worked increasingly against the one-man regime. While the front continued to grow despite all repression, the erosion and disintegration within the ruling camp persisted. The regime change in Syria and the subsequent process initiated domestically under Bahçeli’s leadership began to open cracks within the opposition front that had managed to act jointly in elections for nearly a decade.
As of today, politics that stood against the AKP-MHP bloc for 10 years has roughly split into four parts:
• Nationalists led by İYİP and the Victory Party
• Conservatives including parties such as DEVA, Future, and SP
• DEM and, more broadly, Kurdish politics proceeding with Öcalan’s roadmap
• CHP and left-socialist structures that continue to insist on an anti-regime stance
The process launched by Bahçeli, with Öcalan’s involvement and Erdoğan’s support, has opened the door to a new alignment within the opposition. The political configurations that had so far taken shape around regime opposition have recently begun to take a new form centred on the resolution process and the Middle East. There is hardly any need to state that the ruling bloc plays the dominant role here.
IT HAS BECOME THE PALACE’S MAIN STRATEGY
The government is aware that, one way or another, it must make certain adjustments before the ballot box appears before the people within two years. It is as clear as day that the AKP-MHP partnership is no longer sufficient. The front must be widened. These days, it seeks to do so with a flexible approach.
Even if it cannot share the same front with the opposition components it has divided, pulling them away from the opposing camp currently seems to offer easier results. The ruling bloc is fully focused on this. Without addressing the country’s fundamental problems or uttering a single word against the regime that brought Turkey to this state, it watches the opposition splinter around Syria, Gaza, and the resolution process. It makes moves that will inflame internal conflict. For the next two years, this will be the government front’s main effort.
THE OPPOSITION IS VERY WILLING
Since 1 October, Turkey has stopped everything to watch the opposition’s quarrel. The verbal sparring between İYİP and DEM in the Grand National Assembly has become the top headline on TV screens. Spokespeople accuse each other in the harshest terms. İYİP and the Victory Party attack DEM over the resolution process, trying to attract voters from MHP and AKP. They strive to prove that they are the most nationalist, refusing to abandon divisive political language for the sake of gaining a few percentage points, even at the cost of splitting society. This attitude, growing harsher each day and breaking all bridges, has become the dominant political tone. The alliance-like scenes between the two parties offer more than a clue about the coming days. There is no doubt that Özdağ and Dervişoğlu’s next target will be the nationalists within CHP.
DEM, on the other hand, is trying to make people forget the criticised photo of its proximity to the AKP, taking shelter behind İYİP’s harsh rhetoric and attempting to divide politics into ‘those who support the process’ and ‘those who don’t’. They adopt a harsh tone, lumping every criticism or question about the so-called ‘resolution’ process, whose nature and direction remain unclear, into the same category. In part of Pervin Buldan’s statement, which implied that criticisms of the resolution process amounted to “a call for government intervention”, we learn that Öcalan, too, is uncomfortable with the critical attitude. This information shows that DEM’s political course will continue in this direction.
Davutoğlu and Babacan’s true intentions became clear in a single photo. They have no other goal than to regain leadership of the community they emerged from. It would be wise for the opposition to make its calculations by disregarding these parties whose faces are turned toward power.
THANKFULLY, LIFE DOESN’T ALLOW IT!
Looking at the past two or three weeks, it can be said that the government has achieved a certain level of success in its attempt to divide and fragment the opposition. However, the progress made is still insufficient for this atmosphere to become permanent. First of all, CHP, which plays the adhesive role within the opposition, needs to be pushed out of the equation. We will follow many cases related to this in the coming weeks.
Yet there is also the reality of a Turkey where even removing CHP from the equation through judicial means would not be enough on its own. In a country where 70 percent of people believe it is poorly governed, no matter how much politics is engineered from above, it remains helpless before real life. It is worth looking closely at certain figures in recent opinion polls. The first concerns DEM voters: the question was, “If Öcalan calls for support, would you back Erdoğan?” The answer: 70 percent said no. The second was a nationwide poll: “How do you view the state of democracy?” Answer: 70 percent said bad. Another question: “How do you view the state of the economy?” Answer: 76 percent said bad.
Given this, no matter what you do, you cannot change society’s position against the regime. If the parties still in the opposition front today do not want to end up like Meral Akşener, they need to read this picture carefully.
No matter what game anyone sets up or where, the overwhelming majority of citizens believe that peace, democracy, and prosperity will only come with the government’s departure. Anyone who fights against this belief, no matter where their power and support come from, will lose. The only thing to be done is to struggle to ensure that the people’s approach prevails in politics.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled DEM, Gelecek, DEVA, İYİP ve diğerleri rejimi unuttu: Halkı yok sayan siyaset kaybeder, published in BirGün newspaper on October 16, 2025.
