Direct negotiation signal from Putin

Umut Can Fırtına

As talks continue on ending the war in Ukraine, Russian President Putin has, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, offered to enter into direct negotiations with Kyiv. While the US maintains its threats to withdraw from the process if negotiations stall, Kyiv has responded to Putin’s offer with: “We are ready to talk.”

Speaking to the Russian state broadcaster, Putin stated for the first time since the war began in February 2022 that he could meet directly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"WE ARE ASSESSING"

Commenting on the 30-hour ceasefire declared over the Easter weekend, Putin said they had taken this initiative “because they viewed the ceasefire positively.” He stressed that Russia has always approached peace initiatives with goodwill, adding, “We hope representatives of the Kyiv regime feel the same.”

Putin noted that they would assess the outcomes of the declared ceasefire to determine any further steps. He observed a decrease in Ukraine’s overall military activity but also emphasised that the ceasefire had been violated 4,900 times.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that there is currently no plan for mutual cessation of attacks on civilian infrastructure, but confirmed that Putin is open to discussing the matter. Peskov added that Zelensky’s proposal to prohibit attacks on civilian infrastructure needs to be debated, but said “Kyiv must take steps to clear legal obstacles” for that to happen.

MEETING IN LONDON

Ukrainian leader Zelensky also made a statement on Monday night, saying Ukraine is “ready for any kind of talks” to end the war and halt attacks on civilians. Reiterating his proposal for a 30-day ceasefire focused on ending long-range missile and drone attacks on civilian areas, Zelensky said, “We expect a clear response from Moscow.”

Zelensky also announced that today, representatives from the UK, France, Ukraine, and the US will gather in London to discuss “an unconditional ceasefire and lasting peace.” Last week, following a meeting in Paris with Ukraine and its Western allies, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that “if no progress is made within a few days, we will withdraw from the process.”

CEASEFIRE NEAR, CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND FAVOURABLE

Associate Professor İkbal Dürre from Moscow State University shared her assessment of the latest developments regarding a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine with BirGün:

“There had been expectations that peace in Ukraine could swiftly be achieved if Trump returned to office, but that expectation has since reversed. It was believed that peace would be delayed as Putin was dragging his feet. However, I now think a ceasefire could come surprisingly soon. From Moscow’s perspective, given that the conditions on the ground and the overall context are in its favour, Putin has no reason to back down. That’s why he’s not in a rush.

Meanwhile, Kyiv is steadily losing ground, both internationally and on the battlefield. The promised arms support for Ukraine will run out in June. After that, there are no guarantees as to what kind of weapons will be delivered and how. This is pushing Kyiv to act out of a sense of panic. Until this situation becomes clearer, Zelensky will have to make more concessions.

On the other hand, the Kremlin doesn’t want to lose Trump, who has taken the initiative for peace. They may not get another leader like him again. If Trump pulls out of the process, the difficult 3–5 months ahead for Ukraine could turn into 3–5 years of difficulty for Russia. The Russian capital itself now wants the war to end.

EUROPE HAS ACCEPTED

It’s not just Russia, we’re seeing signs that both American and European companies are preparing to re-enter the Russian market. Blocking this wave brings political costs for Putin too. Still, Putin wants to achieve the goals he set at the start of the war, and he has reached one of the most critical: it’s now clear that Ukraine cannot join NATO. This doesn’t only apply to Ukraine, it means that Moldova, Georgia, and possibly Armenia are also off the table for NATO membership.

Another key point is that both the West and Zelensky have now accepted that a resolution will involve Putin. Initially, they believed that Putin wouldn’t be able to withstand the economic and political pressures brought on by the war and bet on that assumption. But once that expectation faded, the West started calculating that any leader after Putin would likely be similar to him.

“REVERSE KISSINGER” STRATEGY FAILED

So why doesn’t Russia want to push all the way to the end? Historically, Russia has felt its greatest threats coming from the south and has countered them using underground resources and labour sourced from the north. Today, Russia is the dominant power in the increasingly important Arctic region. Trump’s interest in Greenland and Canada is also linked to this, and Russia wants to cooperate with the US on this issue. If it doesn’t happen now, Russia could lose ground in the Arctic within 3–5 years.

The West has also realised that it won’t be easy to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. Trump initially moved with that hope, but Putin, knowing Trump might be gone in a few years, has maintained the momentum he’s built with China. The US has come to accept this. At present, Trump is factoring this into his Russia strategy, which may even lead him to adopt a slightly more conciliatory approach towards China. Since Russia cannot be separated from China, this actually strengthens China’s hand. As a result, we may see Trump softening his rhetoric on China too.

On the other hand, there are issues that have lost priority or been conceded by Putin. Russia is scaling back its influence in the Middle East. The main concern in its Middle East policy is no longer to increase military presence, but to use diplomacy to ensure that developments there do not negatively impact energy and gas prices.

There’s a particularly interesting situation in Syria, for example. Although it's being said that the US is withdrawing, among the eight conditions the US has laid out for Damascus is: “You will allow our counter-terror operations here.” In effect, this means: “Legitimise our presence here.” According to Syrian law, the US and coalition forces are illegal in the country.

The only legitimate forces in Syria were those invited by Assad, Russia and Iran. Now, this situation is about to be completely reversed. When Turkey or any other country asks, “What are you doing here?” the US will respond just like Russia did and say, “I’m here at the invitation of Damascus.”

Note: This text has been translated from the original Turkish version titled Putin’den doğrudan müzakere sinyali, published in BirGün newspaper on April 22, 2025.