Erdoğan’s boomerang
The AKP celebrated its 24th anniversary with the theme of “expansion.” Badges were pinned on the disputed mayors of seized municipalities. The ceremony was the clearest answer to the question: “What does a party with no story left to tell, one that has unravelled and rotted, look like?” As someone from a generation that witnessed the dissolution of ANAP, the powerful party of the post-junta period, the AKP’s current mood feels very familiar. Faces marked by the brazenness and arrogance that come with corruption and unjust enrichment, and by the lack of anything left to say, were all there in the hall.
Pro-government media chose to headline those who joined the party instead of recounting the AKP’s 24-year journey. But as the way it was presented made clear, these new members have already become a stumbling block, just like in the İBB operations.
HAS THE COUP STARTED EATING ITS CHILDREN?
The İBB operations launched to sideline the CHP turned into a civilian coup on 19 March. Law was disregarded, and elected officials who refused to submit were sent to the Silivri dungeons one by one. It was an unprecedented act of judicial intervention. Erdoğan took on the role of spokesman for the coup to break up the opposition, throwing all his charisma into it. But the public was not convinced. From the first day, reactions grew.
At this point, it became common to hear within the ruling camp: “The operation has started hitting us like a boomerang.” As always, it was Devlet Bahçeli who said it first. By calling for it to “end as soon as possible,” he was saying in political language, “This is turning against us.”
Indeed, things did not go as the government planned. The CHP did not break apart, the İBB operations did not convince the public, and they did not boost confidence in the People’s Alliance. On the contrary, they expanded the influence of Özgür Özel and the CHP.
But the government has taken a path from which returning is almost impossible. Every manoeuvre throws more people off the train. Not all revolutions eat their children; now coups have started eating their own. The quarrels between Nedim Şener–Mücahit Bilici, Mehmet Uçum, and Şamil Tayyar are enough to make you say, “Grab your popcorn and sit in front of the TV.”
THE WALL’S BRICK: THE IBB FILE
During the Susurluk scandal, Mehmet Ağar, who was expected to face trial, said, “We are the brick of the state; if you pull us out, the wall will collapse.” Indeed, those content with the wall’s existence stayed in power again, and Ağar survived politically and socially almost without punishment.
In the wall built by the one-man regime, the İBB operation represents an important brick. Pulling that brick out may not bring the regime down, but it will cause major damage. That is why they have no choice but to defend this disgrace. And here is where Erdoğan’s dilemma begins.
Trusteeships, operations, arrests, and bribery-fuelled transfers have no effect on the public anymore. On the contrary, they have reinforced the perception of the AKP as a “nest of corruption.” Voter support is falling. Erdoğan’s grand pronouncements about the Middle East and the country are losing their impact. But he cannot get off this highway, and he never will.
The Erdoğan–Bahçeli coalition must walk around with a stick until election day, waiting for the public and the opposition to tire and withdraw. This is an empty hope. No government that has accumulated this much anger and hatred can survive, not in Turkey, not anywhere in the world.
Politics of pressure and bullying through the judiciary and law enforcement have become one of the regime’s main structural pillars. Now, creaking sounds are coming from that pillar. At this point, a step back in the İBB operation could turn into a devastating earthquake for the government. It is a difficult moment of decision for Erdoğan.
The ruling front has launched a transfer offensive in both parliament and municipalities. They have also brought Öcalan into the fold and started a new process. They crowned this process with a commission, which could have serious consequences such as the PKK laying down its arms.
From the outside, one might think Erdoğan and Bahçeli are in control of the process and have enough support to be re-elected even reaching a firm conclusion in that direction. But the truth is far from it. No move is enough to hide the destruction, poverty, and social misery in the country.
Every step taken to consolidate power comes back like a boomerang and hits them again. The events of just the last 15 days alone contain dozens of signs that time is up for the government. The AKP–MHP government is in a vegetative state. The sooner the plug is pulled, the better for the country.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Erdoğan’ın bumerangı, published in BirGün newspaper on August 15, 2025.
