Erdoğan’s ‘to-do list for 15 months’
The scheme Erdoğan has set up to enable him to stand for re-election is not merely a matter of calculating seats in Ankara. The cost of this accelerated election spectacle is being paid by the people and the plundered natural environment.
People are resisting the plunder and looting in many parts of the country.
The countdown to the election date has begun. Predictions have narrowed down to June or November 2027. Erdoğan wants to emerge victorious from the ballot box once again. For such a success, his list of “priorities” is quite long. He must manage dozens of issues, from the economy to politics, and from foreign policy to the judiciary, in a coordinated manner. Time is short; he needs to speed things up, yet he must be just as careful. He cannot move beyond the existing script; improvisation is forbidden. That is why he must content himself with merely pressing the “fast-forward” button on the tape.
The days we are currently experiencing coincide with a “fast-forwarded show” period.
A ROADMAP TAILORED TO THE ELECTION
Erdoğan’s re-candidacy depends on an early election. An early election, in turn, requires the approval of 360 MPs. The votes of the AKP, MHP, HÜDA PAR, Yeniden Refah and DSP are not sufficient for this. The 360-vote threshold can be reached only if all members of the Yeni Yol group (8 from DEVA, 8 from Saadet, 4 from the Future Party), the 9 independent MPs and the Saadet Party (which holds one seat) all vote ‘yes’. Or, without getting into this arithmetic at all, they could persuade the DEM Party, which holds 58 seats.
The table above also shows that Erdoğan’s candidacy is by no means a foregone conclusion. Persuading the parties to agree to an election in November 2027 will be even more difficult. They could quite easily say, “We’ll wait another six months and go to an election without Erdoğan.”
This indicates that the first item on the to-do list has already been reserved: “At least one party currently in the opposition bloc must be persuaded.” There aren’t many candidates to choose from; the choice will be between Yeni Yol, DEM and İYİP. Moreover, Yeni Yol might not even be enough. This situation signals that certain concessions or new alliances will come to the fore as the election approaches.
THE CLEARANCE OPERATION
Erdoğan will not be able to turn this difficult parliamentary arithmetic to his advantage through mere political rhetoric or promises alone. Conviction chambers must be established; but for this, a new and fresh ‘pie’ to be distributed is needed. However, public finances are in a dire state, and the Central Bank’s situation is well-known. Given this, the regime’s sights are set directly on the areas held by the opposition, the assets under the control of local authorities, and their potential for rent-seeking.
Therefore, to view the operations launched against the opposition in recent times, carried out under legal pretexts or with threats of trusteeship, as merely a political intimidation tactic would be to misread the situation. This is, at the same time, a massive and planned “Clearance Operation”.
We can clearly see the economic footprint of this siege along a broad corridor stretching from Istanbul to the Aegean. In Istanbul, there are dozens of large and small “collapse” and rent-seeking projects, ranging from the Istanbul Canal to the Yerebatan Cistern. The Vocational Training Centre in Izmir cannot be viewed separately from this situation. Similarly, the operation against Üsküdar Municipality should be interpreted as a move to support the foundation-sect rent-seeking system.
The ruling bloc is effectively ‘taking down’ opposition-held areas under the guise of public interest or administrative oversight. These operations serve multiple purposes:
Opposition-run municipalities are being economically strangled and put under pressure, and by being rendered unable to deliver projects to the public, they are being politically squeezed.
The areas vacated, seized, and the cut-off rent streams are being allocated to the regime’s allies.
Moreover, this newly created bribery pool is being turned into the biggest trump card to bring those “new potential partners” who will raise their hands in Parliament to the table.
Time is short for the ruling party, and the stakes are high. The bulk of Erdoğan’s 15-month agenda is driven not only by political engineering but also by the imperative to consolidate his own loyalist capital. We had noted that the ‘fast-forward’ button had been pressed; here, the most searing consequences of this acceleration are manifesting in the economy, or rather, in a reckless transfer of resources. To describe the process we are currently undergoing as an “Accelerated Plunder Era” would certainly not be an exaggeration.
Simply taking down the local resources in the opposition’s hands is not enough to keep the wheels turning for the regime’s allies. Wherever you look, you see the state’s large-scale projects being put out to tender at a frantic pace. The most defining characteristic of this era is the handing over of vast mining licences and forested areas to companies through decrees published overnight, at the expense of the plundering of nature. From strategic energy investments to foreign currency-guaranteed city hospitals, and bridge and motorway construction projects with open-ended costs, whatever profitable ventures there are, they are invariably channelled into the coffers of those familiar crony companies clustered around the regime, and the ‘five-member’ and ‘ten-member’ structures.
The government is well aware that, to secure its own survival in a potential November 2027 (or earlier) election, it requires massive election funding and a robust capital group to back it up. While crony companies are raiding public resources with the logic of “whatever we can grab is profit” ahead of the looming political uncertainty, the regime is distributing these tenders and guarantees as “political loyalty contracts”.
LOOK AT WHO IS BEING ARRESTED
In conclusion, the scheme Erdoğan has devised to enable his re-election is not merely about constitutional debates in the corridors of Ankara or parliamentary seat calculations. The cost of this accelerated spectacle, however, is being borne by the millions who are growing poorer by the day and by the plundered natural environment.
In this process, merely looking at the institutions and individuals being subjected to pressure is enough to reveal the regime’s intentions. The environmentalist trying to stop the plunder, the trade unionist defending labour, the engineer standing against the city’s looting and profiteering, and the journalist writing about what is happening are all in prison. We cannot view the detention of the former MASAK director as anything other than part of this.
In the economy, politics and daily life, plunder and looting have become a permanent form of governance. It is not just the country’s underground and above-ground riches that are being destroyed, but life itself. Those who have become inexplicably wealthy in the neighbourhood, housing estate, village, town or city where you have lived over the past decade; they are the ones behind this plunder, acting as partners in the regime.
In this partnership, some are involved with the mindset of “15 months left, let’s fill the pot, whilst others are there simply to cling to their seats. This country must not spend a single minute under a system based on “taking down and plunder”. In opposition to Erdoğan’s 15-month agenda, there is a need for the social opposition’s “15-month struggle agenda” to carry the country towards a free, equal and democratic future.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Erdoğan’ın ‘15 ayda yapılacaklar’ listesi, published in BirGün newspaper on April 9, 2026.
