If the era of shouting “Hey Israel! Hey Öcalan!” is over, what will the right-wing do now?
AKP has long built its social base through opposition to Israel, while MHP has done so through its staunch anti-PKK stance. Now, as both parties make sharp turns away from the political lines they’ve followed for decades, their inability to offer a new narrative in place of the old may plunge both AKP and MHP into a profound political void.
Today, Turkey is governed by two right-wing parties that, 35 years ago, would have been considered marginal. The ruling parties, MHP and AKP now powerful enough to have shaped a regime only gained real momentum after the mid-1990s. In earlier elections, they were often seen as filler parties. Before the 1980 coup, they had managed to carve out some space for themselves by joining Süleyman Demirel’s Nationalist Front governments under the Justice Party. In the last general election before the coup, held on 5 June 1977, the MSP received 8.6% of the vote, while the MHP remained at 6.4%. In contrast, the general election on 14 May 2023 painted a very different picture: MHP secured 10% of the vote, while AKP garnered around 36.1%. There were even times when these two parties together neared 50%.
The rise of these two parties in Turkey calls for explanation. While support from the United States and Western countries must be acknowledged, it alone does not suffice to explain their ascent. Both parties flourished during a climate marked by pressure and violence years that could be characterised as an era of repression in Turkey. MHP gained its base largely through staunch opposition, even hostility, to the PKK, and found considerable influence among the youth. Meanwhile, AKP and its predecessor, the Welfare Party, appealed primarily to conservative segments of society through their anti-Western and anti-Israel rhetoric. For nearly 40 years, both parties and the broader right-wing political sphere maintained this trajectory.
But now, the situation has changed. Both parties and their leaders have made or have been forced to make sharp turns away from the political paths they’ve followed for decades.
AKP CAUGHT RED-HANDED
It has become clear just how hollow the so-called “national and domestic” policy, championed by Tayyip Erdoğan and his trusted ally former intelligence chief and current Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan really is. The bluster against Israel and the US has proven to be empty rhetoric. Following recent developments in Syria, expectations of growing tension with Israel were swiftly dispelled by Ankara’s rapid moves. Last week, Turkish and Israeli officials held their first meeting in Baku, hosted by Azerbaijan, to establish a deconfliction mechanism in Syria. That the meeting took place in Azerbaijan was, of course, no coincidence. The Aliyev government maintains close relations not only with Turkey but also with the state of Israel. Notably, Aliyev publicly reaffirmed his commitment by stating, “I will continue to work for Turkey-Israel normalisation.” It is also not hard to assume that the US played a role in this process.
But is a rapprochement between Turkey and Israel really possible at a time when the two are poised to face off in Syria, and while the atrocities in Gaza are plain for all to see? While it may not be realistic to expect Erdoğan and Netanyahu to appear side by side any time soon, yes, a rapprochement is very much on the table.
This is, after all, a country where Trump’s so-called Gaza plan was seriously debated in pro-government media under the theme of “Hijrah.” Islamist columnists are publishing articles exploring how feasible a mass migration might be for Palestinians. Even the most absurd headlines are being reinterpreted and legitimised through religious justification. In this context, it seems no coincidence that the pro-government media has recently revived the discussion on “Hijrah.” It is evident that preparations are being made under the guidance of the US to smooth the road toward closer ties between Turkey and Israel. It is already clear that the AKP is positioning itself along the same axis as the US-Israel alliance, now also embracing anti-Iran sentiment in its broader Middle East policy.
THE SITUATION IS VERY MESSY FOR MHP
A party that has spent the past 40 years defining itself through hostility towards Kurdish politics is now joining an initiative called “A Terror-Free Turkey” alongside the founder of the PKK. Until the day he faced health problems, Bahçeli actively championed the process, and even managed to win favour with the DEM delegation. Even now, through phone calls and social media posts, he continues to offer support to Erdoğan. With Bahçeli’s words, the MHP has effectively declared that it is abandoning the very politics to which it owes its existence.
WHAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME?
According to public opinion polls, these moves have not yet had a significant impact on the voter base. However, it’s worth noting that implementation has not yet begun. Preparations in both areas are still incomplete. Even so, this much has already created unease among the supporters of both parties.
While Erdoğan and Bahçeli may aim to divide the opposition with these moves, they risk causing cracks within their own core bases. Erdoğan, as always, may be planning to watch the process unfold before making a final decision. This could explain why he has chosen to remain in the background on both matters. Yet this time, politics has not allowed such concealment. It’s becoming clear that the old motto of “what’s past is past” won’t work here. These two issues are now tightly intertwined.
Erdoğan may already be praying for the process to proceed smoothly without complications. But this is not something that prayer alone can fix—there are too many loose ends. Abandoning decades-old political lines without offering a new alternative may plunge both AKP and MHP into a deep political void. In fact, it may already be happening.
Note: This text has been translated from the original Turkish version titled Eyy Israil, Eyy Öcalan devri sona erdiyse sağ ne yapacak? Yerine ne koyacaklar?, published in BirGün newspaper on April 16, 2025.
