Inflation adjustment institute TÜİK

Labour Service

While citizens are forced to cut back on food due to high inflation, the Turkish Statistical Institute announced that the inflation rate for May was 1.53%. It was also announced that the annual inflation rate had fallen to 35.41%.

The highest annual increase was 71.67% in education. The annual changes in the three main expenditure groups with the highest weight were 32.87% in food and non-alcoholic beverages, 24.59% in transportation, and 67.43% in housing. However, it was announced that food prices had fallen by 0.71% on a monthly basis.

Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek stated that, according to the announced figures, inflation had decreased by 40 points over the past 12 months. Şimşek said, “Annual inflation fell to 35.4%, the lowest level since November 2021. With the effect of the steady decline and improvement in expectations, service inflation also fell by 45 points compared to last year, to 51.2%. With the policies we have implemented, sustainable high growth and increased prosperity will be achieved.”

TÜİK SAID 35 PERCENT, ENAG SAID 71 PERCENT

However, the Independent Inflation Research Group (ENAG) announced the May inflation rate as 3.66 percent and the annual rate as 71.23 percent.

The İstanbul Chamber of Commerce calculated this rate as 2.83 percent monthly two days ago. It was noted that retail prices increased by 46.57% in May compared to the same period last year. The gap between TÜİK's data and other data was also reflected in DİSK-AR's assessment. The statement read, ‘TÜİK is underreporting inflation! The data is not credible; price increases continue and it is becoming harder to make ends meet!’

The report, which noted that TÜİK had again failed to publish the commodity price list this month despite a court ruling, included the following statements: “Different social classes and segments feel inflation quite differently. The lowest 20% income group receives 6.3% of total income, while food accounts for 30.6% of this group's expenditures. The top 20% income group receives 48.1% of total income, while food accounts for only 12.8% of their expenditures. Thus, low-income groups have more limited income for non-food expenditures, which exacerbates their financial difficulties. The decision by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) to cease publishing the commodity price list in June 2022 has made inflation data even more controversial. As a result, the basis for the monthly inflation rate of 1.53% announced by TÜİK is also unknown.”

PUBLIC OFFICIALS LOST 7,000 TL, RETIREES LOST AT LEAST 1,933 TL

The report noted the following:

In April 2025, public servants lost a total of 34.8 billion TL, retirees lost a total of 41.4 billion TL, and workers lost a total of 100.4 billion TL.

Individually, in the first four months of the year, the erosion in the lowest civil servant salary exceeded 7,000 TL, the erosion in the lowest pension was 1,933 TL, and the erosion in the minimum wage was 2,953 TL.

The high inflation that has been ongoing in Turkey for several years is causing a decline in the purchasing power of low-income individuals and workers. Although the rate of inflation has slowed down largely due to the base effect, prices continue to rise. The decline in the rate of inflation does not mean that prices are falling.

Inflation affects different social classes and segments differently. It reduces the purchasing power of low-income earners much more and has a disruptive effect on income distribution.

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SAYING FOOD PRICES HAVE FALLEN IS MISLEADING

Prof. Dr. Mehmet Şişman evaluated the difference between TÜİK data and İTO and ENAG data for BirGün: “Even if the difference is 0.30, 0.50, or even 1 point, it is still understandable, but there is a significant difference of 1.30 between them. Our expectation was that official data would be prepared more carefully. For example, some data on food inflation show a decline, indicating a decrease. However, citizens do not see this decline reflected in their daily lives, at the market, or in stores. While there may be certain declines in seasonal products, there has been no negative inflation in food. This is misleading. TÜİK needs to explain what it bases its food inflation calculations on and publish its price list.”

Stating that the Central Bank's 2025 year-end inflation forecast of 24 per cent has become impossible, Şişman said, “The average inflation rate is around 45 per cent, and this also applies to rents.  This is still high and scorching inflation. Despite the decline in demand, the high inflation rate indicates that the heat is high and actually shows where fiscal policy should be directed. We are going through a period where disinflationary policies are not effective enough, and the Central Bank's year-end inflation target of 20% has become impossible. Annual inflation could only fall below 30% if monthly inflation rates drop below 1% over the next seven months. Such a decline is also impossible.”

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ISN'T THIS DIFFERENCE CALLED MISCONDUCT?

After the data was released, members of the All Pensioners' Union gathered in front of the Çankaya Municipality. In his speech, General President Zeynel Abidin Ergen said: “Every six months, the salaries of public sector employees and the monthly pensions of pensioners are adjusted based on inflation to compensate for income losses. Additionally, a welfare share is provided. In our case, not only is the welfare share omitted, but inflation is also reported as significantly lower than it actually is, thereby devaluing the pre-paid labour of retirees. As a result, the increase rate in retirees' monthly pensions is reduced every six months. Our pensions are being stolen from us. This is being done through the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). The fact that TÜİK does not disclose the prices of the items included in its inflation calculations is not suspicious, what else could it be?”

Note: This text has been translated from the original Turkish version titled Enflasyonu ayarlama enstitüsü TÜİK, published in BirGün newspaper on June 4, 2025.