Iran is the last “stone” in the region

Umut Can Fırtına

Foreign policy expert Engin Solakoğlu assessed the developments.

Israel's attack on Iran has ushered in a new phase. What is the imperialist game that is being played?

Imperialism's concern is to create a region in the Middle East where the US and its affiliated capital can freely roam, expanding the ‘market’ to make exploitation more ‘efficient.’ To this end, it is pursuing the removal of the ‘obstacles’ in the region. However, the real goal is to continue the weakening of the United States' hegemony by neutralising its rival, China. The new design also plans to leave no room for China's interests. Iran appears to be the last ‘stone’ in the region. Crushing that stone and bringing it to the same level as other imperialist puppet regimes is, to put it bluntly. The US is using Israel, the battering ram in the region, to achieve these goals. Israeli aggression is not the only tool. Regional regimes that have no connection to the interests of their people and no goals other than protecting their power are also nervous but willing supporters of this plan.

There are two countries that could change the equation in Iran. The first is Russia. No one should think in terms of a comparison between Iran and Syria. The two are not in the same position from Russia's perspective. Moscow's support, or lack thereof, for the Iranian regime will be particularly related to securing its own Caucasus borders. According to the Russian National Security Concept, this is a region of vital importance. The establishment of a Western-oriented regime in Tehran could shake Russia much more seriously than Ukraine's entry into NATO. The second country is China. Will it determine a policy based on the calculation that this whole game is ultimately designed against it, or will it say, ‘I will continue to sail my ship in a region dominated by Israel/the US’? In the first option, the support they give to Iran will at least lead to the prolongation of the war and increase the cost of imperialism. If the resources needed to defend Israel's aggressive policy exceed a certain threshold, the treasury will speak and the guns may fall silent.

Will Iran be transformed into a more controllable country?

There is no doubt that the primary objective in the context of Iran is to change the regime and install a Persian El Şara at the helm of Iran. I do not believe that it is possible to focus on a single ethnic group to achieve this goal, as it is not possible for the armed Kurdish political movement or the Baluchis alone to change the balance of power in Iran. A regime change in Iran essentially depends on a significant proportion of the Persian and Turkish peoples of Iran moving in the same direction. The first signs, at least for now, indicate that regime opponents from all ethnic groups in Iran do not have such intentions. I emphasise the phrase ‘in Iran’ here. I am not referring to those in Los Angeles, London or Paris. I do not believe that they have much in common with the opposition within the country.

What is the role assigned to Turkey in the palace regime's insidious calculations?

Ankara is, of course, an important player in this scenario and its stance could play a decisive role. Let us not forget that this war is not just between Israel and Iran. After all, NATO infrastructure, including facilities in Turkey, is being used against Iran. It is not possible for those who rule Turkey to take on Israel and, by extension, the United States. The alliance that controls the state is cold towards Iran for two reasons. The first is the well-known sectarian thinking, and the second is a more secular view based on gaining superiority in the thousand-year-old rivalry with Iran. On the other hand, both sides have expectations from a weakened Iran. The doors of Central Asia will open, etc...

These are pipe dreams, but they believe in them. Will imperialism, which has not made a dent in Syria, which you claim to have conquered, devour Iran? Moreover, the risks involved are enormous. I am not talking about the issue of Turkey being next in line. That is currently nothing more than internal political fodder due to Turkey's position within the Western alliance. The real problem lies elsewhere. A major upheaval in Iran would cause millions to flood into Turkey. This is not a possibility, it is a certainty. Neither the Turkish state nor its people could withstand such a migration. The foundations of the country would be shaken. The issue cannot be resolved by going to the EU and saying, ‘Give us three or five billion euros to keep them here.’ Even 100 billion euros would not be enough.

What is the task of the Kurds?

PJAK's statement can be seen as an indication of a certain intention, but the extent of its influence among the Iranian Kurds is questionable. Moreover, the stance announced by the KCK, which can be considered a kind of regional umbrella organisation, at least for now, gives the impression of a more cautious approach. Imperialism certainly writes a role for everyone, but the Middle East is not a stage where the actors will follow this script to the letter.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled “İran bölgedeki son ‘taş’” published in BirGün newspaper on June 17, 2025.