Is the international conjuncture in favour of Erdoğan?
The geopolitics-selling one-man regime is also taking advantage of the international conjuncture. Imperialist centres that get what they want from Erdoğan remain silent in the face of the authoritarianism in the country. Regardless of the international conjuncture, social movements have their own dynamics. Recent political history is full of examples where a single spark has ignited an entire steppe.
Does the international conjuncture paint a favourable picture for Erdoğan's administration?
The one-man regime, which has gone completely off the leash, is trying to suppress social opposition, eliminate political rivals one by one, and has now openly launched the İmamoğlu operation—bringing this question to the fore.
While the Islamist regime, deeply dependent on imperialism, garners the open support of global power centres, it is undeniable that the current geopolitical climate—marked by escalating rivalries and the resurgence of new wars of division—has served to bolster the regime.
As Zeynep Gürcanlı also wrote in Ekonomim, “Before the İmamoğlu operation, the international conjuncture was very much in favour of Erdoğan's administration: the fall of Esad in Syria, the process initiated via Öcalan, Europe’s rift with the US pushing it to rely on Turkey for joint defence, etc…”
IN ALIGNMENT WITH IMPERIALISM
By submitting to the “American peace” in the Middle East, the one-man regime opened new lines of credit in the eyes of the US and imperialist powers. The West bought into the shift in direction—Erdoğan’s silence on Israel, the support given to Ukraine, and his NATO enthusiasm. While trying to reconcile with the West, the regime also strengthened its ties with Russia and deepened relations with China, thereby diversifying its credit sources.
Despite the occasional minor frictions, US/Western imperialism, the EU, and the Gulf Arab monarchies are largely in alignment with Erdoğan’s rule. Erdoğan, highly skilled at marketing the country’s power, capacity, and resources to international actors, in return secures room to manoeuvre at home.
It has previously been pointed out in these columns that Erdoğan's administration is pursuing a dual strategy:
1. GEOPOLITICS SELL
The conflict among imperialist centres, the intensifying race for hegemony, the war in Ukraine, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and the build-up along the Eurasian corridor have made geopolitics more valuable than ever before. Due to its location between East and West, Türkiye holds immense strategic importance. The one-man regime is fully aware of this and is, accordingly, selling geopolitics. Beyond being NATO’s forward post on its southern flank, Türkiye now also holds “value” within the context of Europe’s security architecture.
2. NEOLIBERAL BENEFITS
Alongside geopolitics, there is also an economic sell-off underway. Behind the palace regime’s Gulf expeditions and its high-level traffic with centres of finance capital lies a quest for resources. Mehmet Şimşek spends much of his time abroad. In exchange for petrodollars from the Gulf Arab states and the opening of credit taps from Western financial hubs like London and New York, the country’s resources are being marketed.
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE US, EU, AND RUSSIA
In his bid to be re-elected once again, Erdoğan is putting Türkiye’s strategic position on the negotiating table with the West. He is striking separate deals with each actor. Meanwhile, the hegemonic powers are using Türkiye as a pawn in their own rivalries. An analysis in Politico summarises the situation well:
“Despite the arrest of İmamoğlu, the EU will continue sending money to Türkiye. Whatever happens on the streets of İstanbul, Ankara is too important a partner to be alienated. Türkiye’s strategic importance means the EU will likely turn a blind eye. Erdoğan knows this.” (Harici.com.tr)
The reactions from the Trump administration and Moscow following İmamoğlu’s detention made this stance clear. Both declared, “This is Türkiye’s internal matter; we will not interfere.” At a reception held on Tuesday, 25 March for the US’s new ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barrack, Trump reiterated Washington’s position by saying, “It’s a good country and its leader is good.”
On the same Tuesday, while protests continued, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. The details of what was negotiated behind closed doors remain unknown. According to official statements, the two sides agreed on “strengthening bilateral relations and enhancing regional cooperation.”
Note: This article is translated from the original Turkish version titled Uluslararası konjonktür Erdoğan’dan yana (mı?), published in BirGün newspaper on March 29, 2025.
