No argument left to prolong AKP’s rule

Politics Service

The Palace administration, which fails to gain public consent on almost any issue, has been intensifying its repression day by day since the 19 March judicial coup. According to public opinion polls, the country’s most pressing problems are, by far, the economic crisis, cost of living, and injustice. While millions demand a change to the Presidential Government System, many believe that the AKP-MHP government has reached the end of its road. Over half the population supports early elections, and criticism of the government's mismanagement is voiced at every opportunity. The recent surveys by Yöneylem and Area Research reveal strikingly similar results.

The findings of Area Research’s April 2025 public agenda survey laid bare the predicament faced by the government. In response to the question “Should there be an early election?”, 54.5% of participants answered yes. While 41.4% opposed early elections, 70.1% of respondents said they do not trust the judiciary or courts in Turkey. Only 22.5% said they had trust.

In this study, conducted with 2,000 participants across 87 districts in 26 provinces, citizens were asked: “If there were a general election today, which party would you vote for?” 28.4% chose CHP, while 24.7% said they would vote for the AKP. DEM Party followed with 7%, MHP with 6.1%, İYİ Party with 5.3%, and Zafer Party with 3.4%. A notable 19% remained undecided. When undecided voters were distributed, CHP’s vote share rose to 35%, followed by AKP at 30.6%, DEM Party at 8.6%, MHP at 7.6%, İYİ Party at 6.6%, and Zafer Party at 4.2%.

NO TRUST IN THE JUDICIARY

Many surveys have long shown a deep lack of trust in the judiciary. The imprisonment of CHP’s presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu and other politicians on dubious grounds, along with arrests following youth protests, have further undermined public confidence. 70.1% of participants said they did not trust the judicial system, while only 22.5% expressed trust.

PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM FAVOURED

Many polls reveal that the root of the country’s crises lies in the “one-man” regime. When asked, “What system of governance should Turkey have?” 54.5% of citizens chose the parliamentary system. Only 37.7% favoured the presidential system, and 58.9% expressed dissatisfaction with the current presidential government model.

RISING DEMAND FOR EARLY ELECTIONS

While the opposition continues to call for early elections, the government persistently avoids the topic. When asked “Should there be an early election?”, 54.5% responded affirmatively, while 41.4% said no. Strikingly, 22% of those who voted for President Erdoğan in the second round of the 2023 general elections now support early elections.

İMAMOĞLU VERDICT SEEN AS POLITICAL

The government and its allies, unable to present convincing evidence regarding the 19 March operations and the cancellation of İmamoğlu’s diploma, appear increasingly panicked as public opinion solidifies that these are political moves. Asked about the diploma annulment, 63.5% of respondents said, “It’s wrong; it’s a political decision.” Regarding a potential arrest of İmamoğlu on corruption charges, 52.1% said, “It’s wrong; the accusations are baseless.”

GOVERNMENT DEEMED UNSUCCESSFUL

Area Research also asked, “Do you find the government’s economic policies successful?” 75.8% of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the AKP government’s economic management. Only 20.2% were satisfied.

YÖNEYLEM SURVEY: MAJORITY SUPPORTS EARLY ELECTIONS

Yöneylem Research’s latest poll also underscored the government’s deadlock. Conducted between 9–12 April with 2,400 participants in 26 provinces, the survey found that 52.4% believe the country is poorly governed. Only 25% believe it is well governed. In response to “Should Turkey hold early elections?” 53.4% said yes. Asked about the annulment of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s diploma, 58% said it was wrong, while 27% approved. Regarding his potential arrest, 57.7% said it would be wrong, and only 28% supported it.

THE REGIME'S ONLY CONCERN IS HOLDING ON TO POWER

Yöneylem Research Coordinator Derya Kömürcü assessed the implications of the poll data. Kömürcü said, “Since 19 March, nearly 75% of the population has been reacting to the injustices and lawlessness in the country and is now demonstrating a will to resist. Around 25% of the electorate still supports the ruling bloc.”

Kömürcü noted that the data reflects growing unity against the regime: “Even within a short time, with the rise of social opposition, we’re seeing increased willingness among citizens to stand against the ruling bloc. The 5-point rise in CHP’s support is significant in this regard. It signals that opposition segments are coalescing. On the other hand, the so-called ‘other side’—those typically described as the pro-government base—has not yet undergone a mass shift.”

THE STRUGGLE HAS JUST BEGUN

Kömürcü emphasised that the current state signals the beginning of a broader struggle: “The people have not yet lost in the face of these regime attacks, but they have not fully won either. We’ve entered a phase where those who fail to act will lose. Opposition parties must therefore continue the fight. In this phase, it’s crucial not to instil a sense of victory prematurely, or to reduce the entire process to elections once again. Government-aligned figures like Şamil Tayyar and Abdulkadir Selvi keep bringing up elections. But as I said, this process is ongoing. With the toppling of the barricade in Beyazıt, tens of thousands taking to the streets that same night, and millions gathering in Maltepe, the opposition must respond to these mobilised demands and continue the struggle accordingly.”

DON’T REDUCE THE PROCESS TO ELECTIONS ALONE

Kömürcü pointed out that the growing demand for early elections is itself a sign of intensifying struggle: “Even though support for early elections has risen considerably, it hasn’t yet reached the level of mass mobilisation that would force the government’s hand. Therefore, while this call is a valid part of today’s discourse, we must be wary of reducing it to a purely electoral narrative, which could undermine the wider democratic struggle of the public.”

He added: “The mentality that ‘the opposition is certain to win the next election’ could deflate the rising momentum of struggle.” Kömürcü concluded: “These opinion polls are helpful in understanding what the public is thinking. We are facing a highly variable situation. However, public demands for justice, rule of law, and equality are the main drivers shaping this picture. As the regime becomes increasingly autocratic, the public's response is a demand for a democratic country.

From the perspective of the ruling bloc, it’s clear they have run out of ideas. In the past six months, Erdoğan has shown no effort to present a vision or ideology for Turkey. Their only motivation now is staying in power. The image they present is one of a regime with no other path forward but to become even more autocratic.

Their last remaining asset, despite failure in foreign policy, is the narrative of a ‘Strong Turkey.’ They are still trying to capitalise on their supposed victories in Syria, their negotiations with the EU, and Erdoğan’s relationship with Trump. Despite all the failures, they continue to use these for leverage within their base.”

Source: İktidarını uzatacak argümanı yok