Northern Cyprus heads to elections, Ankara mobilises for Tatar

Eylül Başak - Aycan Karadağ

Turkish Cypriots go to the polls on Sunday to elect their president for the 11th time. Six independent and eight total candidates are running, and the election is highly controversial because Ankara has actively intervened in favour of the incumbent, Ersin Tatar. In the previous election, the Erdoğan administration openly backed Tatar against Mustafa Akıncı and ensured his victory.

The contest is expected to be mainly between Ersin Tatar, supported by the AKP, and Tufan Erhürman of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP). Other candidates include Osman Zorba from the Cyprus Socialist Party and independents Arif Salih Kırdağ, Ahmet Boran, Mehmet Hasgüler, İbrahim Yazıcı, and Hüseyin Gürlek. Tatar, backed by the ruling National Unity Party (UBP) and AKP, is running as an “independent.”

To win in the 11th election since the 1974 military intervention, a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote. If no one achieves this, a runoff will be held a week later between the top two candidates.

GOING DOOR TO DOOR FOR VOTES

The AKP government is actively intervening in Northern Cyprus. AKP and MHP deputies, along with government representatives, are campaigning heavily for Tatar. AKP figures including Süleyman Soylu, as well as the Turkish ambassador, are going door to door for votes. Representatives of the Turkish single-party regime argue the election is an “existential” issue, drawing strong reactions from Turkish Cypriots and other candidates.

PROPAGANDA IN PLAY

Ersin Tatar, sponsored by Ankara, also uses black propaganda and manipulation. He skillfully employs AKP tactics, accusing the opposition of “foreign backing,” saying, “Tel Aviv and Athens do not want to see me leading the country.” Tatar claimed, “There is a bloc against us. I’m talking about a bloc that for years has aligned itself with Southern Cyprus and opposed us extremely,” targeting the opposition.

LEFT AND PROGRESSIVE FORCES REACT

Representatives of leftist and socialist progressive parties in Northern Cyprus criticise the election process and Turkey’s intervention. Speaking to BirGün, Turkish Cypriots described this as a sovereignty violation and said the election was already tainted. Party spokespeople warned that just as a “sultanate regime” is being established in Turkey, the same is being attempted in northern Cyprus.

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THE SULTANATE BEING ESTABLISHED IN TURKEY IS ALSO ATTEMPTED IN CYPRUS

Cemal Özyiğit, former chair of the Communal Democracy Party (TDP):

Unfortunately, in the previous presidential election, Turkish President Erdoğan spared no effort to get Ersin Tatar elected. Now we are seeing the same scenario again. Erdoğan's team is arriving on the island one by one: Süleyman Soylu, Binali Yıldırım, the MHP delegation and even Mesut Özil... This scenario clearly shows that the AKP regime is supporting a candidate who unconditionally accepts its mindset and pledges allegiance to it, namely Ersin Tatar. They are working with all their might to keep the government afloat. If Tatar loses on Sunday, the opposition will call for early elections. This would mean the fall of the current government. Therefore, we are at a critical juncture not only for the presidential election but also for the continuation of the regime. The mafia is running rampant in the north of Cyprus. Mafia feuds are taking place, hitmen are coming from Turkey. Drugs, prostitution, smuggling... You name it, it's there. The AKP used to say, ‘We will close the nightclubs,’ but now they themselves are coming to those nightclubs. Northern Cyprus has been turned into a hub for all kinds of illegal trade and dirty money. Turkish Cypriots want an independent structure that can make its voice heard to the world, one that has its own identity and freedom. However, the Turkish administration views Northern Cyprus as if it were its own sub-administration. Today, ideological impositions are being made on society through Sunni Islamic philosophy. Yet the Turkish Cypriot society is a secular society. We do not accept these impositions. A ‘sultanate regime’ is increasingly being established in Turkey, and they are trying to build the same thing here. To this end, they have formed a team that pledges allegiance to them. The people are now uncomfortable with this situation. There is serious backlash against Ersin Tatar. In contrast, Tufan Erhürman enjoys very strong love and trust within society. People believe in his honesty, knowledge and vision. We believe that on Sunday, the will of the people will be reflected at the ballot box and that Mr Tufan will win the election.

CYPRIOTS ARE TIRED OF TATAR AND WHAT HE REPRESENTS

Münir Rahvancıoğlu, Secretary General of Independence Path:

The President also holds the position of negotiator on Cyprus issues. Cyprus has a parliamentary system, and the President's duties outside of negotiations are largely symbolic. Therefore, the elections will essentially determine what kind of solution the people want for the Cyprus issue. The current government is behind the President, and the election is, in a sense, a vote of confidence for the current government. According to Independence Road, Tufan Erhürman has a very high chance of winning in the first round. Although there are many independent candidates, Erhürman is the only candidate with a chance against Tatar. Apart from Erhürman and Tatar, the candidates other than the Cyprus Socialist Party candidate have no chance or claim.

The public is fed up with what Tatar represents. First, people are reacting to the intervention by the Turkish state in the 2020 elections, which crushed the will of the Turkish Cypriots with all its institutions and organisations. Therefore, in a sense, these elections are seen by the public as the third round of the 2020 elections. They are a response to what happened there. Secondly, Ersin Tatar's policy of two states, put forward together with Turkey, and his opposition to a federation – which Tatar spoke about a lot in 2020 and continues to speak about now – has yielded no concrete results. When this rhetoric emerged in 2020, it was presented as something new. In five years, this policy has yielded no results; on the contrary, Ersin Tatar has done nothing to implement this proposal.

The public has now realised that the so-called two-state solution is not a recognised structure included in the international community/law. It means the continuation of the existing TRNC, unrecognised, under isolation, and isolated in terms of sports, culture, and the arts. The so-called two-state policy means the continuation of the existing situation, contrary to the opening up of Turkish Cypriots to the world. This has been made very clear. No state has recognised it, no direct flights have been established, and no commercial relations have been established. None of these have happened. On the contrary, the Turkish states decided to open embassies in the Republic of Cyprus and reaffirmed that they would not recognise the TRNC. In other words, we have reached a point that is even more backward, more isolated, and more disconnected from the world than when the two-state policy emerged in 2020. That is why the two-state policy has taken down in the public consciousness. The third dimension is that the public is reacting to the policies put forward by the current government behind Tatar. The public is expressing its reaction to the government through Tatar. Because only government components are behind Tatar. In other words, the policies put forward by this government in education, health, transport, working life, cultural issues, matters related to secularism – in almost every area of life – have exhausted people, and Tatar's departure has now become a means of expressing their reaction to these policies.

As an alternative to these three situations, Tufan Erhürman remains. In fact, it is not the policies put forward by Erhürman, but those put forward by Tatar that benefit Erhürman.

The public is reacting to Erdoğan and the AKP's intervention on Tatar's behalf. Reactions have built up in society. Ankara's wish is for the TRNC to continue to exist unrecognised and as Turkey's ‘offspring’. The public understands this, and therefore – let me say this sincerely, including those who desire the TRNC to be recognised and to exist as a separate state in Cyprus – opposes Ersin Tatar's two-state policy. These people are not against two states, but oppose Tatar's two-state policy because they understand that it means the continuation of the status quo.

AKP INTERVENES IN THE ELECTION WITH EVERY BRANCH

Murat Kanatlı, Secretary of the New Cyprus Party (YKP):

In the previous election, the difference between the two candidates was 4,000. The current President, Ersin Tatar, was elected by around 4,000 votes. In the last two months, 2,000 new people have been added to the voter list. Over the past five years, more than 20,000 people have been added. In other words, the demographic structure and the voter structure have been significantly distorted. Therefore, regardless of who is elected in these elections, Turkey's effective and actual intervention will continue to be present there. We are already seeing the demographic structure change throughout the election. Turkey, that is, the AKP, is here with almost all its branches. We have stopped keeping track of the list. From Binali Yıldırım to Süleyman Soylu, from Hulusi Akar to Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Cevdet Yılmaz, someone is here almost every day. Just the day before, Cevdet Yılmaz was here and created an environment that turned into a National Unity Party election campaign. In other words, the Northern Cyprus elections have turned into a local government election for Turkey. Despite this, Tufan Erhürman is running a good campaign on this issue. If we were living in a “normal” geography, in the country, we would say that Erhürman will win the elections. However, if we look back at the 2020 elections, Mustafa Akıncı had already won a significant portion of the ballot boxes at that time, but especially in certain regions such as the Dipkarpaz region and the Famagusta region, where there was a heavy influx of population from Turkey, the Turkish ambassador/embassy intervened directly. At the embassy, the difference in certain ballot boxes was turned into figures like 70 per cent to 30 per cent. Ersin Tatar won the election by a margin of 4,000 votes from those regions. Looking at the situation now, yes, there is a reaction, there is a response, and there is anger towards the politics being pursued, but there is serious concern about whether this will be reflected at the ballot box and, even if it is, whether the AKP and Erdoğan will accept the will of the people. Because we see and feel what is happening in Turkey, and we are following it closely. In this regard, when Tufan Erhürman wins and expresses his will for a solution – if he can – we are not very sure whether Erdoğan will accept and recognise this.

Whatever Turkey says, at the end of the day, what it is trying to do is turn Cyprus into one of its provinces/districts. That is the policy it is pursuing. Sometimes it calls this a federation, but in fact it is promoting this idea—it is not actually discussing a federation. It talks about a confederation but does not discuss a confederation. Right now, it talks about two states, but at the end of the day – as even the Turkish government spokesperson let slip again today – they keep saying the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, but this is no longer a slip of the tongue; it is something that has become ingrained in the subconscious. They consider this place a province of Turkey. What they are currently trying to do is turn the TRNC into a “Republic of Turkey”. We are in the middle of a process moving towards that point. On the one hand, Turkey says it is the guarantor of the Republic of Cyprus, but it opposes the concept of statehood written in the Republic of Cyprus's constitution and defends a two-state solution. In fact, Turkey has been pursuing a contradictory policy for many years.

VOTERS ADOPT OUR POLICY AGAINST FALSE CLAIMS

Erkut Şahali, CTP General Secretary:

We have brought the election process, which we started in the lead, to the stage of completion in the lead. We acted in line with our own propaganda framework and felt no need to make any changes.

In the face of false statements, voters embraced our correct policy. Support is growing every day. We entered the last three days confident that our candidate would win. We have brought the election process, which we started in the lead, to the stage of completion in the lead.

We have acted in accordance with our own propaganda framework and have felt no need to make any changes. In the face of false statements, voters have embraced our correct policy. Support is growing every day. We are going into the election confident that our candidate will win.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Kuzey Kıbrıs seçime gidiyor, Ankara Tatar için devrede: Trafoda kedi değil, AKP var, published in BirGün newspaper on October 16, 2025.