Oil prices recede, but the impact is here to stay
Global energy prices are retreating following the ceasefire; however, the cost increases triggered by the war will continue to fuel inflation in Turkey. Prof. Dr Durusoy stated, "Turkey stands out negatively from other nations, as it was already grappling with numerous macroeconomic issues even before the war."
The USA and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, on the condition that shipping traffic is permitted through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks against Iran cease. The war, which began on 28 February, reached its peak when the Strait of Hormuz was closed, endangering one-fifth of the world’s petrol supply. Following the announcement of the two-week ceasefire, global oil prices saw a sharp decline, while stock markets rose.
Crude oil prices fell by 17.75% to $92.90, while Brent crude dropped by 15.9% to reach the $92.30 level. Prior to the ceasefire, oil prices, which had climbed to around $112 following Trump’s threat that "An entire civilisation will be destroyed tonight" plunged sharply in anticipation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices, driven by "safe haven" demand, rose by 3.02% to reach $4,826.37. European natural gas prices also fell by approximately 20%, dropping below €43.
Before the war, prices were following a relatively low trend. The price per barrel of Brent crude had closed at $72.48 on 27 February, the day before the war began. European natural gas prices stood at €31.51 during the same period. Statements suggesting that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened for safe passage under the ceasefire were the primary driver of the price drops. The closure of this critical bottleneck, where approximately 20% of the petrol and LNG (Sıvılaştırılmış Doğal Gaz - Liquefied Natural Gas) trade is conducted, had resulted in the loss of nearly 14 million barrels of daily oil supply. While roughly 150 ships normally pass through the Strait daily, this number had dwindled to just five following the outbreak of war.
APRIL INFLATION SET TO BE HIGH
The fluctuations in global markets and the surge in energy prices have pushed up general energy costs in Turkey, particularly fuel. As of 4 April, electricity and natural gas prices for residential subscribers were increased by an average of 25%; following electricity, a tiered pricing system was also introduced for households regarding natural gas. Furthermore, BOTAŞ (Turkey's crude oil and natural gas pipeline corporation) increased natural gas prices by an average of 18.6% for industrial consumers and 19.4% for power plants.
According to calculations, these hikes have a direct inflationary impact of approximately 0.59 points on April's inflation figures. It is also emphasised that the rise in energy costs will create indirect effects on the prices of goods and services.
THE FINANCIAL BURDEN ON LOW-INCOME EARNERS WILL GROW
Prof. Dr Serap Durusoy emphasised that the development of the military plan and whether a lasting peace can be established following the negotiations starting in Pakistan on 10 April are of critical importance.
Durusoy stated, "While the world economy is being dragged into a state of total chaos due to these attacks, Turkey feels the economic effects deeply due to its energy dependency, even if it is not a party to this war, because globalisation makes countries an organic whole." Adding that "fuel hikes in particular are causing food prices to skyrocket, making the struggle for survival harder for low-income earners," Durusoy continued:
"As the world economy was being dragged into chaos, existing vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy brought new destruction along with the war, and geopolitical risks fed inflation. Even if these effects are not visible in the official March inflation data due to the implementation of the Sliding Scale System, households feel it deeply in their 'perceived inflation.' There will be a distinct rise in cost-push inflation, particularly in April. Naturally, this will affect low-income earners the most. In other words, these developments feeding inflation will worsen the financial 'fire' in the pockets of the poor. Even if a permanent peace is achieved between the USA and Iran, its positive reflection on the economy will only be seen after a long time. Furthermore, Turkey differentiates itself negatively from other countries as it was already experiencing many macroeconomic problems before the war."
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Petrol gerilese de etkileri kalacak, published in BirGün newspaper on April 9, 2026.
