On the brink of war
India struck Pakistan citing the Kashmir attack as justification. As the two nuclear powers once again approached the brink of war, calls for restraint were issued. Researcher Gul stated: “The attack is an attempt by Modi, under pressure, to consolidate domestic support.”
Umut Can Fırtına
India and Pakistan have once again come to the brink of war following an attack in the disputed Kashmir region. Citing the 22 April attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, in which 26 tourists were killed, India launched a military operation targeting Pakistan and the Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir region.
In a statement from India’s Press Information Bureau (PIB), it was announced that the “Operation Sindoor” targeted “terror infrastructure” in Pakistan. The statement said that nine locations were struck and claimed that “no Pakistani military facilities were targeted.”
‘WE WILL RESPOND’
Pakistan military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry stated that at least 26 civilians were killed and dozens injured due to missiles fired from India. He reported that four strikes targeted the country's most populous province, Punjab and two struck Pakistan-administered Azad Kashmir. Chaudhry declared that Pakistan would respond to India’s missile attacks at a time and place of its choosing.
He added that in the missile strike on Bahawalpur Mosque in Punjab, 13 people, including women and children, lost their lives, and 37 were injured. A state of emergency was declared in Punjab due to the attacks.
Pakistan security sources also claimed that, in retaliation for India’s assault, they shot down five Indian fighter jets and one drone.
THE KASHMIR DEADLOCK
Kashmir, a Muslim-majority region, has been divided between India and Pakistan since both countries gained independence from British rule in 1947. Both nations claim full sovereignty over the territory. The Kashmir conflict has led to wars between India and Pakistan in 1947, 1965, 1971 and most recently in 1999.
Following the rise to power of the nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2014, pressure on Jammu and Kashmir increased. One of BJP’s main election promises ahead of the spring 2019 elections was to revoke the region’s special status.
With Modi expected to retain power alone in the June 2024 elections but having lost his parliamentary majority, it is suggested that he is using the conflict with Pakistan as a tool to rally domestic support.
MODI'S SHOW OF FORCE
Imtiaz Gul, Executive Director of the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies, stated that he does not foresee a full-scale war between India and Pakistan. He noted that the nuclear capabilities of both countries serve as a deterrent and described the situation as “a show of force by the Modi administration.” Highlighting the growing public pressure on Modi following the Pahalgam attack, Gul added, “Now the Pakistani government, which uses a similar nationalist and militarist rhetoric domestically, will feel compelled to respond.”
THE INFLUENCE OF THE US AND CHINA
Gul pointed out that the rising tensions may also reflect the global power rivalry between the United States and China: “Just as Pakistan is important to China, India is equally important to the US. India’s aggressive policy may also be linked to Pakistan’s growing closeness with China. India and the US both view China as a common adversary. Undermining Pakistan’s interests, destabilising it, or creating uncertainty becomes easier under such circumstances.”
He also noted that global powers such as the US, Russia, and China would likely intervene to prevent a full-scale war.
INCREASED PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN
Gul remarked on Pakistan’s historical links to militant groups in Kashmir: “Some of these organisations were once based in Pakistan. India uses this historical fact to reinforce its narrative that Pakistan supports terrorism.”
He explained that New Delhi is seeking to isolate Pakistan from the international community through political and economic pressure, while also drawing attention to Pakistan’s severe economic crisis. “India’s anti-Pakistan campaign will continue,” said Gul. “India is advancing rapidly in terms of economic growth and has a very high GDP. Any conflict lasting more than a few days would also destabilise India and significantly harm its economic interests. Pakistan, already mired in a deep economic crisis, would be less concerned about the economic consequences of a potential war.”
Note: This text has been translated from the original Turkish version titled Savaşın eşiğinde, published in BirGün newspaper on May 8, 2025.
