Portrait of a divided Germany
The election results in Germany are clearer than they have been in a long time. CDU/CSU will emerge as the strongest party and gain the mandate to form a government. However, the real winners of the election were AfD and the Left Party.
Dr. Umut Şahverdi/Nürnberg
The election results in Germany are clearer than they have been in a long time. CDU/CSU will emerge as the strongest party and gain the mandate to form a government. However, the real winners of the election were AfD and the Left Party, while the losers were all Traffic Light Coalition parties and BSW.
As expected, all parties within the Traffic Light Coalition suffered significant losses compared to the 2021 Federal Parliament elections. Voters’ reckoning with these three parties was anticipated. Moreover, due to the loss of trust in the FDP, particularly in lead candidate Christian Lindner, it was predicted that the party would struggle to recover. It is important to remember that Lindner was not only held responsible for the collapse of the governing coalition but also actively devised various scenarios on how to force this collapse. With the dissolution of the government coalition, the FDP has effectively removed itself from the political scene.
THE COALITION HAS COLLAPSED
On the other hand, it is clear that the SPD is struggling in two ways: Chancellor Scholz failed to convince people with an energetic campaign, and the party is suffering greatly because, apart from four years, it has been in government since 1998, making it largely responsible for the country's problems. A fundamental trust in their commitment to anything has been lost. It appears as if they want to govern for the sake of governing, regardless of how and with whom.
Meanwhile, the Greens have lost significant public trust because they failed to defend the values they represented and believed in once they were in government. The young voter base, which prioritizes the climate crisis the most, has shifted to the Left Party. At the same time, it was not possible to retain conservative voters within the Greens, and they have instead returned to their "original" choice, the CDU.
LEFT-WING POPULISM LOST
After entering three state parliaments shortly after its establishment in the summer, expectations were high for BSW to secure a place in the Federal Parliament as well. However, despite the Left Party gaining votes, BSW's failure to do so should be seen as a clear defeat. The question of what will happen to the BSW project remains open: Despite its presence in three state parliaments, the party failed to differentiate itself from other parties in terms of content and politics and did not gain public trust. Meanwhile, the political future of Sahra Wagenknecht, the party’s namesake, is currently uncertain. Without a clear mandate, the extent of Wagenknecht's influence within her party—especially among state parliament members in the eastern states—will soon be answered.
CLEAR POLITICS WON
Beyond the absolute numbers, a closer look at the results reveals how a division within the population is gradually deepening. In principle, the three centrist parties—slightly right-leaning CDU/CSU and slightly left-leaning SPD and the Greens—collectively hold 56.54% of the vote. At the same time, the far-right AfD and the Left Party together account for 29.57%. This means that parties searching for meaning, like the FDP and BSW, were clearly punished, while those that positioned themselves clearly at the center secured a solid majority in the Federal Parliament; the two parties that conducted the most effective and vocal opposition will enter the new legislative period significantly stronger.
The division is also visible across the federal states. AfD emerged as the strongest force across all of eastern Germany, while CDU dominated the western states. In Berlin, the Left Party received the most votes. The gap between East and West has widened even further 35 years after German reunification. A generational divide is also evident. This can largely be attributed to the social media campaigns of both AfD and the Left. Young people want to be addressed directly. If parties take young people seriously and launch effective campaigns that reach them—particularly through algorithms—they feel acknowledged and engaged. This is the key to communicating with young voters in 2025. AfD and the Left understood this and were rewarded at the polls.
Both parties focus on issues they consider significant. There is no need to go into detail about individual topics—climate, migration, the economy, fears about the future, and many other concerns shared by the population as a whole. However, for young people, the central question is whether they will have a promising future or if the "older generations" have already ruined everything.
It is about whether they will be heard, whether their concerns will be taken seriously, or simply dismissed. The fears of young people about the future can be traced back to the years of the pandemic. A crucial social component was taken away from them, and they became aware that their lives could change drastically overnight. With Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, even peace in Europe was no longer guaranteed. Now, with Germany facing an economic crisis and existential uncertainties, young people want their problems and fears for the future to be taken seriously. They expect answers and solutions from politicians. This is where AfD and the Left have found the most effective messaging. One reason for this is that opposition parties can make more radical demands. Another reason is that they are perceived as "extreme" within the right and left camps of the Federal Parliament. That is, while they advocate for more radical solutions to problems, they also pursue a strategy that resonates with young voters.
The issues revealed by the election results and the divisions within society must be taken seriously. The new government will be formed by a coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD. If this coalition fails to invest in necessary infrastructure, address societal issues, and particularly take economic downturn fears seriously, in four years, AfD will not only surpass the results achieved by the Nazis in 1933 but could become the strongest party in Germany. The future of Germany is at stake. The new government bears this heavy burden, but I have serious doubts about whether it can handle it.
This article is translated from the original Turkish version titled Bölünmüş Almanya tablosu, published in BirGün newspaper on February 25, 2025.
