The aftermath of 7th October 2023: Contradictions and struggles

Dr. Ofer Cassif, The Communist Party of Israel, MK with HADASH-TA’AL

On October 7th, Hamas and other paramilitary forces in Gaza launched an offensive against the south of Israel. They invaded the Western Negev, first targeting military bases and then advancing into Israeli towns and kibbutzim, even attacking the Nova Music Festival, where hundreds of young partygoers were present. Altogether, Hamas killed approximately 1,200 Israelis, about 800 of them civilians, and took 240 hostages. Soon after, Israel began with a bombardment and then launched a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip.

Since then, tens of thousands, possibly over one hundred thousand, Palestinians have been killed, the majority of them civilians. Israeli actions against Palestinians in Gaza are a clear case of genocide, as I have been warning for almost two years now and as also been recognized by various international and Israeli human rights organizations and genocide scholars.

Nearly 1,000 Israeli soldiers have also died as a result of the invasion and occupation of the Strip. Gaza has been reduced to rubble, settler violence has escalated in the West Bank, Israel is mired in social, economic, and political crises, the Middle East faces a monumental crossroads, and the international order is encountering perhaps its greatest threat since the Second World War, as The International Law and international institutions – The UN, The Hague and others – have been under violent attacks and bully delegitimization.

Racism, bigotry, and supremacy have always existed in Israeli society, often under the surface, but visible to those who truly looked. These sentiments were necessary to justify the occupation of the West Bank, the blockade and regular bombardments of Gaza, and the systemic mistreatment of Palestinian citizens of Israel. After October 7th, as a result of widespread shock, anger, and fear, Israeli society largely shed the facade of democracy, let alone the liberal one. Genocidal rhetoric, once treated as fringe, became mainstream. Israeli fascism, experienced for decades by Palestinians, penetrated the broader social and political life of Israel. As has often been the case throughout history, fascism did not have to force its way in, rather it was welcomed with open arms by a frightened, angry and mainly incited populace.

That said, as the situation has worsened, as it has become increasingly clear to the world that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, as sanctions grow, and as the country finds itself increasingly isolated, parts of the Israeli public have begun to wake up. Protests against the government and the war have grown in size, frequency, and intensity. Although most of these protests focus on the government’s failure to secure the release of hostages, the anti-genocide blocs have also been increasing in size and visibility. This anti-government movement must continue to grow, and it can do so only by appealing to the failures of the government’s approach to the Palestinian issue and by confronting hard truths.

One such hard truth is that the elimination of Gaza was never about rescuing the Israeli hostages, nor was it about ensuring security for Israel and its citizens. Israel’s atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank, where the occupation forces and settler violence has risen drastically while Gaza serves as a smokescreen, serve instead to implement Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s “Decisive Plan.” Published in 2017, this document laid out a messianic and genocidal fascist strategy – not only to eliminate the possibility of a two-state solution, but to eliminate of the very existence of the Palestinian People and their rights as a people and even as individuals. Thus, the plan boils down to three basic elements:

1.Israel must annex the whole occupied Palestinian territories without granting them any rights.

2.The Palestinians who will not accept their status as subjects will be expelled.

3.Those who will resist will be killed.

October 7th provided the perfect pretext for the Israeli government to begin implementing this plan. The shockwaves of October 7th and the Gaza genocide reverberated not only through Israeli society but across the region. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s strategy of bypassing the Palestinian issue through normalization with Arab states collapsed. Saudi normalization is now explicitly conditioned on addressing the Palestinian question.

Since October 7th, Israel has carried out strikes in Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, and Qatar, making it the most destabilizing force in the Middle East. Even Egypt and Jordan, countries that signed peace treaties with Israel decades ago, have found themselves in increasingly difficult positions due to internal pressure and fears of a refugee influx. As for Israel’s broader standing in the region, in the eyes of the average resident of the Middle East it has sunk to catastrophic lows.

On the other hand, some countries, such as Syria, have shown signs of accommodating Israeli and Western pressure. As the saying goes, “if you can’t beat them, join them.” How successful this approach will be, and how many others may follow, remains uncertain. For now, it seems that any Arab country seeking normalization with Israel will either have to wait until the genocide ends or face massive internal and external opposition.

On the international stage, October 7th and the Gaza genocide represent yet another fracture in the so-called “liberal world order”. Reactionary forces, led by President Trump, are attempting to solve the Middle East crisis with a blend of classic imperialism and economic neo-imperialism. The Netanyahu-Blair-Trump plan embodies this approach. By turning Gaza into a “free economic zone” run by a foreign council headed by Tony Blair, Trump is reshaping American imperialism in the region in his image.

This is yet another classic example of the "disaster capitalism" that Naomi Klein well described in her book The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism (2007), according to which wars are often used as opportunities to push radical free-market reforms (e.g., privatization, deregulation, and austerity) when the people are too disoriented to resist. This strategy is bound to fail, because it does not address the core issues, the denial of Palestinian self-determination and the deepening of Israeli fascism.

Meanwhile, the regional crisis and massive protests across the world have strengthened support for a two-state solution in many countries. The French-Saudi proposal, unlike Trump’s plan, emphasized the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. Widespread recognition of Palestine and growing sanctions on Israel by Western countries such as France, Spain, Canada, and the UK have effectively turned Israel into a pariah state. More than ever, the majority of the world’s population wishes to see the creation of an independent Palestinian state within their lifetime.

What ultimately defines the impact of October 7th and the Gaza genocide on Israel, the Middle East, and the world is the intensification of polarization on all fronts. Israeli society is torn between the messianic fascists in power and a growing movement for change. The Middle East is torn between Arab reactionary regimes and their own populations. The world itself is divided between a new era of emboldened American and Western imperialism, the desire to preserve the capital-centered order, and a growing global movement fighting for real justice, real peace, and genuine liberation for the Palestinian people.

As Marx and his followers observed, every society is a whole composed of contradictory moments. Same about the global order – it is not a fragmented construct but a totality full of contradictions. Our role, all progressive and democratic forces, is to mobilize alongside the moment that represents the struggle for justice and liberation, defeat the oppressive and exploitative moment and bring it to "its blessed end", as written in the Grundrisse.