The first phase is over, the second phase is painful: We must look at the big picture

İbrahim Varlı

In the Middle East and Turkey, we are entering a new phase in interconnected processes. Due to the impact of the turmoil in the region, the process initiated in Turkey a year ago entered its second phase on 26 October. The first phase of the process that began in the Middle East on 7 October 2023 was completed on 13 October. Although the first phases of both parallel processes are now behind us, the new period is fraught with tension. The actors' calculations and expectations differ in both scenarios. This is the source of the tension.

First phase: Following the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack, the US-Israel alliance embarked on a bloody purge in full view of the world. A simultaneous process was carried out in the region through wars, bombs and attacks. Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Iraq were brought into line by force of arms. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Assad regime and Hashd al-Shaabi were removed from the equation. Even Yemen and Qatar were bombed. The 12-day war against Iran showed how Netanyahu and Trump could be blinded by their own ambitions. Despite the ceasefires on 13 October, Israel's attacks on Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza continued, but now a new phase has begun.

Phase Two: The ‘carrot-and-stick strategy’ is in play. It began with the agreement signed in Sharm El Sheikh on 29 October, attended by more than 20 leaders, from Trump to Merz, from Erdoğan to Sisi and the Gulf Arab sheikhs. Although there is a signature on the table, the process is fraught with conflicts, crises and tensions. There is no complete consensus among the ‘powerful actors’ on how the ‘New Middle East’ will take shape. Beyond that, the presence and resistance of actors outside the ‘victorious front’ are major obstacles to taking the desired steps at the desired pace.

The new Middle East is a US project: The new order the US seeks to establish is nothing more than a projection of a thornless Middle East that prioritises its own and Israel's interests. It involves a regional design that sidelines actors such as Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah, seen as obstacles to Israel and US interests, and that submits to the order established by Israel and the US. As US imperialism embarks on its Indo-Pacific expedition, it envisions a scenario where the Middle East is handed over to loyal proxies. It intends to secure control of the Middle East through leaders and regimes aligned with Israel and itself.

Barrack's roadmap: Tom Barrack, who is not only the US ambassador to Turkey and Syria but also responsible for the Middle East, is shuttling across a wide area from the Caucasus to the Mediterranean Basin to ‘integrate’ the actors into the American plan. He is in a different capital almost every day. There is no door he has not knocked on, from Beirut to Amman, from Damascus to Ankara. At a forum in Manama, the capital of Bahrain, he gave hints about the new era with these words: "Turkey and Israel will not go to war. You will see cooperation from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.‘ As Mehmet Ali Güller emphasised in his article in Cumhuriyet, ’The US is trying to build a Turkey-Israel-centred front in the new Middle East order, in the Israeli hegemony it is trying to construct. It wants Azerbaijan, Kurdish organisations in four countries, some Arab tribes in Iraq and Syria, and Gulf capital to be part of this front."

Bumps in the road: Although the US and Israel have achieved much of what they wanted on the ground, they face obstacles in designing the process. The vision of a Middle East without Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Iran is not progressing as desired. US Ambassador Tom Barrack's attempts to disarm Hezbollah have not been successful so far. No progress has been made in disarming Hamas either, to the extent that Trump is threatening that if they do not disarm themselves, they will be disarmed. Although progress has been made in Syria, he continues to mediate between the parties on the integration of the SDG and Damascus. While Barrack says they are ‘approaching common ground’ with the SDG, Ahmed al-Shara (Colani) will be hosted at the White House next week.

The second stage of the unnamed process: While these events unfold in the Middle East, the pieces have not yet fallen into place on the Syrian front, which is the index of the ‘local’ and ‘national’ process within Turkey. Disagreements over the integration of the SDG are also fundamentally affecting the process in Turkey. Both the AKP, the ruling party and the Palace circle, as well as DEM and all components of the Kurdish movement, are saying in unison that the internal process is progressing in parallel with the external process. Naturally, while the first stage of the internal process is behind us, uncertainties and doubts about the second stage remain.

Partners have different expectations: DEM officials, representatives of the Kurdish movement, and spokespersons for the parties in the HDK alliance also speak of the regime's failure to take action, its attempts to stall the process, and the Palace's manoeuvring. This is not surprising, as Berkant Gültekin wrote in his BirGün article on Saturday about the actors assigning different meanings to the process. We are talking about a government that has turned its face towards the Middle East and the Kurdish movement. While the regime is trying to secure a place for itself in the US's plans for the Middle East, the Kurdish movement has prioritised its gains in Syria.

The picture is clear, the Palace is delaying the process: When expectations and calculations differ, the desired outcomes of the process also differ. In an interview with Evrensel, İskender Bayhan, a member of the commission established in Parliament and a representative of the Labour Party, touched on the difficulties of the process as follows: "The last meeting of the process commission was again held in closed session. There is no new information, no concrete plan for the second phase, and no roadmap. There has been no progress other than ministers voicing internally what they cannot say publicly. The picture is clear: the Palace is blocking the process. The Palace wing of the People's Alliance is stuck on the axis of ‘laying down arms,’ reluctant and procrastinating. There is no progress on any issue. Developments in Syria have invalidated the government's excuses. The Palace can no longer delay this process with the Syria excuse."

No progress because the process is Syria-centred: Yes, ‘no progress has been made on any issue’ because the process is entirely Syria and Middle East-centred. The main motivation behind this rushed process was not a love of peace and democracy at home, but a desire to have a place in Syria and the new equation in the Middle East. While the one-man regime is stepping up pressure on the opposition, it is seeking to consolidate its ‘internal front’ by creating expectations around the Kurdish issue. Naturally, even if ‘developments in Syria invalidate the regime's excuses,’ the regime has no interest in democratisation. Given this reality, Ahmet Türk's interview with Sabah, in which he stated that the resolution process should be viewed as a big picture, a major project that will pave the way for the democratisation of the Middle East, is a sign that ‘the whole picture’ is not being seen.

The game is the US's, the roles are clear: The 7 October attack was a turning point for the Middle East. From Trump to Barrack, from Netanyahu to Erdoğan and the Kurdish movement, almost everyone is talking about the ‘new Middle East’. As Ahmet Türk also emphasised, there is a major Middle East project in the region. This is the whole picture! The plans of the regime, which derives its ‘legitimacy’ from the imperialists, cannot go beyond this framework.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Birinci aşama bitti, ikinci aşama sancılı: Büyük fotoğrafın bütününe bakmalı, published in BirGün newspaper on November 4, 2025.