The source of Trump's ‘courage’ in the Middle East
Behind Trump's willingness to risk war in the Middle East lies the fact that the United States has freed itself from energy dependence over the past two decades to become the world's largest oil producer. Thanks to the shale gas revolution, Washington is no longer as dependent on Saudi Arabia or Middle Eastern oil as it once was. However, the lifespan of this new power may be shorter than expected.
Güldem Atabay
Since the first oil crisis of 1973-1974, the Israel-Iran war and scenarios of American intervention in regional conflicts have always meant crisis, sudden rises in energy prices and disruption of oil flows. Since oil production and prices have also deeply affected US domestic politics, the ‘war-oil’ relationship has often, though not always, been an obstacle to US adventurism in the Middle East.
What we have seen in the Middle East since the weekend, despite his unpredictable autocratic character, shows us that even Trump was able to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities with such a quick decision, indicating that something has changed in the oil market. The Israel-Iran war is in a ceasefire position with unclear details immediately after the US's actual involvement in the war. The price of WTI crude oil is also back below $70 per barrel. However, it is noteworthy that the price of oil has not even reached the $85 level seen during Hamas's attacks on Israel.
The shale oil revolution that has taken place in the United States over the past 20 years is the fundamental reason behind this dynamic.
Thanks to the shale oil revolution that began in 2008, the United States has been the world's largest oil producer since 2014 (except for 2016) thanks to shale gas production.
It has sidelined Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran and all members of the OPEC+ cartel. According to the US Energy Information Administration (IEA), US oil production will reach 14 million barrels per day in 2027 and remain at this level until the end of the following 10 years. By 2050, it is expected to drop to approximately 11.3 million barrels per day. Today, two out of every 10 barrels of oil produced worldwide come from the United States. Saudi Arabia and Russia remain far behind, accounting for approximately 10% of global production.
The United States' transition from being a net oil importer for the past 70 years to a net oil exporter since 2020 is affecting not only the global economy but also politics. The United States cannot escape the impact of oil prices on its economy, but this position, which means it is free from disruptions in the flow of Middle Eastern oil, also gives Trump much greater room for manoeuvre in his foreign policy in the Middle East.
As expected, Saudi Arabia is working with Russia to force the OPEC+ group, which it leads, to increase production in order to regain its leadership in the global oil market. However, this strategy comes at a cost: falling oil prices. This decline in prices is leading to a drop in oil revenues for both Saudi Arabia and Russia, while also causing new shale gas investments to slow down.
Shale gas production is extremely sensitive to price fluctuations. An increase or decrease in oil production in the United States is affected by a difference of only 10 to 20 dollars per barrel. For example, when the price of oil drops to $50 per barrel, many shale gas companies face financial difficulties and production declines rapidly. When the price reaches $60, production becomes sustainable; at $65, drilling activities pick up again. When prices rise above $70, U.S. shale gas producers begin to generate significant profits.
In summary, the United States' bold steps in the Middle East stem from the confidence gained from its unprecedented oil power over the past quarter-century. However, it would be a mistake to believe that this power will be long-lasting. According to the IEA, current trends indicate that the United States will consume more oil than it produces. The US's annual oil demand will exceed 20 million barrels per day until at least 2030. Among major economies that are rapidly reducing their dependence on oil through electric vehicles, the US is in an unfavourable position as a country that has not been able to switch to electric vehicles sufficiently.
The leadership position in the oil market achieved through shale gas production explains why Trump was so eager to engage in war in the Middle East and why he has undermined the green transition and electric vehicles. It is important to remember that the United States' current strategy in both areas can only be sustained for a limited number of years.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Trump’ın Ortadoğu “cesaretinin” kaynağı published in BirGün newspaper on June 25, 2025.
