The tale of mass return has failed
According to data from the Directorate General of Migration Management, the number of Syrian refugees in the country has decreased by nearly 1 million in the last 3 years, while only 273,000 people have returned to their country. Prof. Dr. Danış said, “Syrians feel trapped in Turkey.
Umut Deniz Aydın
The annual report released by the Directorate General of Migration Management, affiliated with the Ministry of Interior, revealed that the number of Syrians under temporary protection in Turkey has decreased by nearly 1 million in three years. However, this decline does not mean that Syrians have largely returned to Syria. According to the statement made by Deputy President Cevdet Yılmaz on June 13, only 273,000 people have returned to their country.
The number of Syrians under temporary protection, which was 3,737,369 in 2021, fell to 2,901,478 in 2024 and 2,555,560 in 2025. The city with the highest density of Syrians is Istanbul with a population of 446,239 Syrian people, followed by Antep with 355,851 and Şanlıurfa with 221,599. The city with the fewest Syrian migrants is Hakkâri with only 7.
In terms of percentage, Kilis leads the way: out of a population of 210,382, there are 53,643 registered Syrians, which accounts for 25.5% of the city's population.
THE GOVERNMENT'S THREE MOTIVATIONS
From the government's perspective, the decrease in the number of refugees under temporary protection sends certain messages in terms of domestic policy, the economy, and foreign policy.
1. Domestic policy: Due to growing anti-refugee sentiment, the message “the numbers are decreasing” is being conveyed to the public.
2. Economy: Individuals under temporary protection status incur various expenses, primarily for healthcare services. While all healthcare services were previously free, this is no longer the case. Those outside this status have almost no access to any services.
3. Foreign policy: Turkey supports the al-Shara administration in Syria. The slogan “Syria is being rebuilt, people are returning” reinforces both al-Shara's success and Turkey's position in the region.
The decreasing number does not entirely mean a return to Syria. People are moving in three different directions. The first is migration to other countries, primarily Gulf countries. The second is staying in Turkey but beginning to live illegally. The third is returning to Syria.
PROMISE NOT KEPT
After the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria on December 8, the statement that “refugees will return to their homes” came to the fore in Ankara and was presented as a diplomatic success by AKP President Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. However, figures and official data show that this has not been the case.
THEY MUST BE INTEGRATED
Prof. Dr. Didem Danış, founding president of the Migration Research Association (GAR) and lecturer at Galatasaray University, assessed the situation as follows: "Due to the lack of a clear integration policy on the part of the political authorities, the Syrian community is trying to solve most of the problems on its own. Despite changes in attitudes toward Syrian refugees and the country's difficult economic conditions, refugees are not sure about returning to Syria. Syrians feel trapped in Turkey."
Danış pointed out that nearly half of the Syrian population consists of children and young people, saying, “ 48 % of the total Syrian population under temporary protection in Turkey is made up of people under the age of 18. We need to work seriously on how to integrate these children and young people into the system.”
Danış noted that the anti-refugee events that took place in Kayseri last summer deeply affected the decision to migrate, saying, “The main reason for leaving Turkey is the growing anti-refugee sentiment in Turkey, rather than the conditions in Syria.”
Finally, emphasizing that the meaning of “temporary protection” status should be re-discussed after the regime change, Danış said, "After the regime change in Syria, Turkey's counterpart in Syria is now the Shara regime, which has relatively better relations with Ankara. In this case, the meaning of the current protection status becomes debatable. Additionally, the prolongation of the ‘temporary’ protection status, which has lasted for over 10 years, poses a separate legal and social issue."
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Kitlesel dönüş masalı çöktü, published in BirGün newspaper on August 18, 2025.
