The war has come to an end
Although Trump’s stance on the war was already known, the dialogue established beyond the conflict itself has come as a surprise even for Moscow. While Trump and Putin “shower each other with praise”, the U.S. is using Ukraine to send a clear message to Europe: "Know your place."
Associate Professor İkbal Dürre – Moscow State University
As the Ukraine war enters its fourth year, battlefield data indicates that Ukraine continues to lose territory by the day. Contrary to expectations, neither U.S.-made ATACMS missiles, nor the UK's Storm Shadow missiles, nor even F-16 fighter jets have significantly altered the course of the war.
Last August, Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk initially seemed like a tactical success. However, it ultimately paved the way for Russian forces to advance along the front line. The question of who truly benefited from the operation remains open. As of today, not only has Russia recaptured 60% of the territory initially seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, but according to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement on February 20, Russian forces have breached the Kursk frontline and pushed further into Ukrainian territory.
If the current trajectory continues, Kyiv’s hopes of using the Kursk offensive as leverage in future peace negotiations may collapse. Moreover, reports suggest that if the U.S. completely halts military aid, the battlefield situation could become even more dire for Ukraine.
THEY CAN’T PRAISE EACH OTHER ENOUGH
The White House has begun discussing Russia’s return to the G7, even suggesting that the term “aggressor state” should no longer be used when referring to Russia. In Riyadh, a diplomatic agreement was reached to fully restore operations at embassies on both sides. Trump and Putin continue exchanging statements full of “mutual admiration”.
Trump's thoughts on this war were known and that he will take the initiative it was expected, but this much nobody, especially Brussels and Kiev. In fact, even Moscow seems to have been somewhat surprised by Trump’s swift intervention. The Russian President’s recent remarks about his discussions with the U.S. President “ primarily on Ukraine, but also on broader Middle Eastern issues” suggests that Moscow may be preparing to reassert itself in regions where it has remained passive in recent years.
THE PROCESS FAVORS MOSCOW
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who in the beginning declared, "We will fight until we return to the 1991 borders and win" is now seeking security guarantees to prevent further territorial losses. Various scenarios are being discussed, including an Israeli-style security model, deploying international peacekeeping forces in buffer zones, and automatic NATO membership if Russia attacks again after a peace agreement. However, there is still no clear roadmap for how the war will end. The only certainty is that the process is working in Moscow’s favor.
While Donald Trump claims that the Ukraine war has cost the U.S. $350 billion, the Zelensky administration asserts that they have only received $70 billion in military aid and $50 billion in humanitarian aid. The $230 billion discrepancy is not a small sum—it could cause serious repercussions on both sides. Given Trump's track record, he is unlikely to let this go unanswered.
Meanwhile, the new U.S. president’s focus on rare minerals could shake Ukraine’s political balance. However, nearly all of the discussed rare mineral deposits belong to the private sector and well-known oligarchs. If Zelensky takes concrete steps to nationalize these resources under the new geopolitical conditions, it could have severe consequences. At the end of the day, as with all resource wars, it ultimately comes down to numbers and calculations. The only consolation is the near certainty that the war will end without escalating into a nuclear conflict.
Over the past three years, Zelensky has shifted from being Biden’s "national hero" to Trump’s "mediocre comedian-dictator." Zelenski is transforming from being a leader who could not be shared especially in Western countries until yesterday - since no one wants to have problems with Trump at the last stage - to a leader who almost risks falling into the position of ‘don't touch, you burn’.
COLAN IN, ZELENSKY OUT
On the other hand, the new leader of another country, who was considered the number one terrorist just yesterday, is now being “celebrated” by the West. One could dismiss this as merely “a quirk of international relations”, but upon closer examination, it is an eye-opening spectacle—one that, as the old saying goes, should serve as a lesson to us all.
These developments cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader geopolitical tensions shaping U.S. and U.K. policies—not just in Ukraine, but also in the Middle East and other regions.
Through its involvement in Ukraine, the U.S. is not only sending a message to the EU but also asserting dominance over the U.K., effectively telling London to know its place. Soon, we will also witness how the power struggle between these two forces spills over into our region.
Note: This article is translated from the original Turkish version titled Savaşın sonuna geldik published in BirGün newspaper on February 24, 2025.
