To understand Syria, one must look to the US
The situation in Turkey is not independent of the situation in Syria, nor is the situation in Syria independent of the situation in the Middle East. Naturally, to understand what is happening in Syria, one must look at the American imperialist projection in the Middle East. The entire region, which the US has destroyed alongside Israel, is interconnected like the links of a chain. The integration of all countries and actors into the new US-Israel-led Middle East order is anticipated. What is happening in Syria is the struggle of this process.
While attempts to politically and socially reshape Syria continue, there is currently a five-part structure. Global, regional and local powers have divided the country among themselves. There has been little change on the map since the jihadists led by HTS took control on 8 December 2024.
WHO CONTROLS WHICH AREAS?
SDF: It controls the north and north-east of the country. Holding one-third of the country east of the Euphrates River, the SDF is allied with the US. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, established by the Kurds, is a de facto administration.
The Druze: Predominantly located in Suwayda but also present in Deraa and the Golan Heights, the Druze have rebelled against Damascus with their declared ‘autonomous’ administration. Seeking to make their autonomy permanent with Israeli support, the Druze frequently clash with Damascus forces.
Anti-HTS jihadists: Although HTS has been in control for over a year, jihadists opposed to Colani maintain their presence in Idlib. Groups such as Saraya Ensar al-Sunna have declared war on Colani, whom they accuse of being under US influence, in messages they have published.
Turkey: With three military operations carried out since 2016, Turkey is stationed in the region stretching from Afrin to Jarablus in northern Syria and also controls the area between Tel Abyad and Resulayn east of the Euphrates.
USA: Although the USA is present throughout the country, it has hundreds of soldiers stationed at the Al-Tanf Military Base in the south, at the intersection of the Jordan-Iraq border. It is gradually expanding this strategically located base.
Russia: Although Russia is the losing party in Syria, it is maintaining its military bases in the country even after Assad. The Tarsus Naval Base and the Hmeymim Air Base in Latakia are important for Russia's access to the Mediterranean.
Israel: Expanding its occupation of the Golan Heights, Israel has also begun to establish a de facto presence in Suwayda, near the Jordanian border in southwestern Syria. Israel, which has made its presence in the region permanent through the Druze, is seeking a buffer zone along the southwestern line from Suwayda to Deraa and the Golan Heights.
ISIS: ISIS maintains a scattered presence in rural areas, including desert regions. The US-led international coalition maintains a presence in Syria on the grounds of combating ISIS.
WHO WANTS WHAT?
How the SDF, a key actor in Syria's fragmented landscape, will be integrated into the new Syrian army will also reveal the country's political structure. Consequently, the knot is tied to the 10 March Agreement. Turkey, Damascus, the SDF, and the US are all accusing each other of not complying with the agreement.
Finally, Hakan Fidan, Yaşar Güler, and İbrahim Kalın visited Damascus, an ultimatum was given to the SDF, and Ankara's position was declared. While the three were in Damascus, clashes broke out in Aleppo between the SDF and Damascus forces. The SDF blamed Damascus, Damascus blamed the SDF, and the fighting in Aleppo sent a message. The SDF, meaning the Kurds, are seeking permanent status. Although Ankara has softened its rhetoric, the gains of the Kurds remain a ‘red line.’ Damascus is seeking to ensure that the Kurds achieve minimal gains. The US is seeking to bring the parties together: the SDF, Damascus, and Ankara. As the parties test each other, the 10 March Agreement expires at the end of the year.
WHAT IS THE 10 MARCH AGREEMENT?
The ‘agreement’ signed by Colani and Mazlum Abdi on 10 March in Damascus consists of eight articles.
The agreement stipulates that:
•All civil and military institutions in north-eastern Syria will be integrated into the Syrian state administration; border crossings, airports, and oil and gas reserves will be brought under state control.
•In exchange for the SDF and the areas under its control being linked to Damascus, the Kurds will be recognised as an integral part of the Syrian state, and their citizenship rights and constitutional rights will be guaranteed. There are many points of disagreement regarding the implementation of the agreement, which was signed under US supervision.
13-POINT PROPOSAL
Last week, Damascus presented the SDF with a new 13-point roadmap. The plan:
•envisages maintaining the status quo in north-eastern Syria, structuring the SDF into three separate brigades within the army, and assigning them senior positions in security institutions.
The SDF insists on limiting the presence of the Syrian army in the northeast and demands that only its three divisions be deployed east of the Euphrates. Damascus, however, wants other divisional units of the army to enter northeast Syria as well.
This is where Turkey comes in. It views the SDF as the Syrian branch of the PKK and wants it to lay down its arms and integrate into the army individually. The SDF is reacting negatively to this demand.
In his speech in Damascus, Fidan expressed his ‘discomfort’ on this issue, stating, ‘We see that the SDF has no intention of making much progress in the integration talks.’
THE DECISIVE POWER: THE UNITED STATES
In summary, Syria cannot be considered independently of the United States' new Middle East order. While Trump's new National Security Strategy Document envisages leaving the Middle East to proxy powers, it demands full ‘harmony’ from all actors, including Syria. Even if the SDF-Damascus, SDF-Turkey, and Turkey-Israel crises flare up again, the ties these powers have forged with US imperialism show who the boss is.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Suriye’yi anlamak için ABD’ye bakmalı, published in BirGün newspaper on December 24, 2025.
