Turkey stuck at peak inflation
The OECD has raised its inflation estimate for Turkey to 33.5% for 2025. Turkey is also expected to rank first among countries in 2026 with an inflation rate of 19.2%. According to estimates above the Medium-Term Program forecasts, the situation is not looking good.
Economy Service
The outlook for inflation in the country is not improving. The OECD report revised its inflation forecasts upward, moving them further away from the economic management's “dreams.” According to the OECD update, Turkey will close this year as the country with the second-highest inflation after Argentina.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has raised its inflation forecast for Turkey. The OECD made the update in its Economic Outlook Interim Report. The updates included estimates for Turkey.
The OECD raised its inflation estimate for the end of 2025 by 2.1 points. The 2025 year-end inflation projection, which was 31.4% in the previous report, has been raised to 33.5%. According to the organization, Turkey's inflation will again be at the top, ranking second among OECD countries after Argentina.
The inflation projection for the end of 2026 has also been raised from 18.5 percent to 19.2 percent. Accordingly, Turkey will be the country with the highest inflation in 2026. Argentina's inflation is expected to fall to 16.5 percent in the same year.
Inflation estimates exceeded the official estimates of the economic administration led by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek. In the Medium-Term Program (MTP) announced at the beginning of September, the 2025 inflation target was raised from 17.5 percent to 28.5 percent, an increase of 11 points from the previous estimate. The forecast for 2026 was announced as 16 percent in the latest MTP. The Central Bank's inflation expectation for the end of 2025 is between 24 and 29 percent.
The report included in the forecasts stated, “Inflation is expected to decline, but risks remain,” while drawing attention to the effects of the weakening labor markets on the decline in inflation.
The report states, "While overall inflation is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026, core inflation in advanced G20 economies will generally remain stable, showing a slight decline from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent. However, inflationary pressures may re-emerge," while emphasizing that in some countries, the slowdown in the rate of decline in inflation is accompanied by rising goods prices and persistent service inflation.
GROWTH PREDICTIONS REVISED
Growth predictions for Turkey were also revised in the report. According to the organization, the country's economy will grow by 3.2 percent in 2025. The previous growth forecast was 2.9 percent. The growth expectation for 2026 was lowered from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.
In the OECD report, the 2025 growth forecast for the US economy was raised from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent, while it remained at 1.5 percent for 2026. The Eurozone's 2025 growth forecast was raised from 1% to 1.2%, while the 2026 forecast was lowered from 1.2% to 1%. The 2025 forecast for China was raised from 4.7% to 4.9%, while the 2026 forecast was raised from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Along with Trump's pressure on the US Federal Reserve, the report stated that “ The independence of central banks is low and critical to ensuring stable inflation.” The report stated that “Debt is a particular concern in the US and France.”
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Ülke enflasyonda zirveye kilitlendi, published in BirGün newspaper on September 24, 2025.
