Violence at home, reliance on the US abroad: The people have turned away, Trump is indispensable
The government is now aware that it cannot retain power through the familiar politics of the ballot box and a fair electoral process. Its strategy is to apply pressure at home whilst clinging to the diplomatic lifelines offered by the Trump administration abroad. However, the shifting colours on the map over the past decade show that the hourglass has been turned upside down.
Journalists, mayors and trade unionists are being arrested. The CHP leadership is constantly beset by cases of absolute nullity and congress-related lawsuits. The daily routine of Parliament has become the passing of new repressive laws targeting communication channels, particularly social media. The AKP-MHP regime is running the country with an approach that would make one long for the days of military coups. The government is even framing the ‘Turkey without terrorism and a new constitution’ debate, which it has squeezed in, as a means to expand the layer of pressure on the opposition. Apart from a few embedded journalists writing commissioned pieces, no one takes seriously or even discusses Erdoğan’s statements on leaving the EU and expanding the democratic space.
SURVIVES THROUGH REPRESSION
The AKP-MHP bloc has long since lost its ability to stand on its own two feet. Having severed its ties with the people, the regime is attacking the opposition with all its might to prevent it from being seen as a “paper tiger”. Moreover, this is nothing new.
The People’s Alliance has been eroding step by step since the 30 March 2014 local elections. Moreover, this erosion did not occur in an atmosphere where allegations of abuse and fraud were constantly in the headlines. They have been pushed and shoved this far, but the well has run dry. First, the major cities abandoned the People’s Alliance; then, the social groups it relied on began to bid farewell to Erdoğan one by one. What remains is an alliance of rent-seekers, sects and religious communities, business tycoons and the mafia. Despite all this, one must give the Palace Alliance its due on one point. Bringing together such marginalised groups to secure support in the 20–30 per cent range was an achievement.
It was an achievement because recent opinion polls indicate that erosion has begun even within this ‘steel core’. The erosion and disintegration have progressed that far.
PRODUCTIVE SECTORS HAVE ABANDONED THE PALACE
When all the significant public opinion polls and studies conducted over the last four years are examined, a rather bleak picture emerges for the regime.
Research conducted since around 2020 into the political leanings of young people reveals several common themes. Firstly, a common finding across all studies is that the AKP has suffered a significant loss of support. Another finding is that the conservative-Islamist political discourse on which the AKP relies is gradually weakening. The third common finding is that the social group where the AKP is weakest is young people aged 18–25. Young people born during the AKP regime and who have received their entire education during this period are keeping their distance from the AKP. The fact that the proportion of those in this group saying “I will vote for the AKP” has never exceeded 20% in any poll is also an indication of this situation. Among young people participating in the poll who identify as nationalists, the preference was for the Victory Party and the Good Party rather than the MHP. This has further weakened the President’s position.
A similar result emerged regarding the political preferences of working women. Among women working full-time or part-time, support for the AKP-MHP stands at around 30 per cent. Among housewives, however, support for the regime rises slightly to around 40 per cent.
One of the most interesting developments occurred among farmers and pensioners. A significant erosion has occurred within these groups, which for many years were seen as the AKP’s vote bank. Support from pensioners, which stood at around 60 per cent a decade ago, has now fallen well below 40 per cent. A similar picture applies to farmers. All this shows that the country’s future, its productive forces, and the very groups that have kept the regime in power until now have lost hope in the Palace regime.
THE SOLUTION: THE US ROADMAP
Having lost the support of young people, women and the productive sectors, and thereby forfeiting its domestic sociological legitimacy, the regime is looking abroad for a solution to this deep crisis. US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Representative for Syria, Tom Barrack, outlines a new ‘roadmap’ for Ankara in almost every speech. Whilst the opposition reacts strongly to the models of monarchy and strong leadership raised by Barrack, not a single objection—such as “What monarchy?”—is heard from the AKP-MHP bloc, which once framed foreign policy as a display of power; a profound silence prevails.
This is because the regime is now aware that it cannot retain power through the familiar politics of the ballot box and a fair electoral process. In this scenario, where even the election laws it designed have tied its hands, the regime’s sole strategy remains: to ruthlessly attack all social opposition at home and prop up the narrow order it has established through repression, whilst clinging to the diplomatic lifelines offered by the Trump administration abroad.
However, both public opinion polls and the country’s shifting political landscape make it abundantly clear that this mill will not turn with carried water. The wind that painted the map a deep yellow in 2014 has, by 2024, given way to a deep-rooted dissent and a shift in colours seeping from the major cities down to the very capillaries of Anatolia. This map is not merely an election statistic; it is the geographical record of an era’s sociological and political collapse. The hourglass has now turned upside down. Neither the repressive laws suffocating society from within nor the Trump diplomacy relied upon from without will be enough to halt the approaching, inevitable demise of the People’s Alliance.
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WHAT THE MAP REVEALS
The two maps above show two local elections held a decade apart. The first is from March 2014, the second from March 2024. Looking at the map, it is clear that the regime has lost nearly half of its power within a decade. When the demographic structure of major cities is taken into account, the picture becomes even bleaker for the AKP-MHP bloc. We are witnessing a regime that is steadily and irreversibly losing its power.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled İçeride şiddete dışarıda ABD’ye sarıldı: Halk terk etti, Trump’a mecbur, published in BirGün newspaper on May 7, 2026.
