What is Erdoğan's secret?

Yaşar Aydın

Throughout the AKP regime, which has lasted for over 23 years, Turkey has regressed in all areas considered criteria for development worldwide. Any partial improvements seen in the first decade have been lost in subsequent years. Particularly over the last decade, the situation for the country's people has deteriorated day by day. However, this has not been/is not sufficient to bring about a change in the regime. Taking into account the early elections, our newspaper's political editor Mehmet Emin Kurnaz yesterday conducted a detailed analysis of Erdoğan's possible moves over the next 15 months. As Mehmet Emin's analysis also points out, Erdoğan and Bahçeli are continuing the game they have set up, sitting at the table with their cards on the table, almost openly. But let us also note that this situation is more of a necessity than a choice for the People's Alliance. With nothing left to do, the regime is forced to repeat what it knows best. It still believes it will succeed.

Erdoğan is confident in his ability to maintain his regime despite a decade of economic decline. His ability to do so despite two local election defeats and a drop in public support to around 35 per cent has boosted his self-confidence even further. The situation in Turkey cannot be explained by rational data as to why Erdoğan remains in power. In a country with a certain degree of democratic tradition and dynamism, a political Islamist regime has managed to stay in power without prioritising social consent and continues to do so.

Let us acknowledge that the support of the US, the EU and even Russia has made a significant contribution to his remaining in power of the regime.The capture of state institutions, backed by rent based support from organisations such as religious communities, religious orders and the mafia, also secured a certain level of social support. This is also an important factor. But none of these is enough to explain the AKP and Erdoğan’s 23 years in power that have continued through poverty, corruption and repression. So only one thing remains: what determined the process was what the opposition did and did not do.

SHAPING THE OPPOSITION

With the capital and state power it has seized the government is moving forward on the path it knows almost by heart, like a lorry with failed brakes. The only goal is to win the election again and take the regime to a point where it cannot be changed. Erdoğan and Bahçeli know that they can achieve this as long as they can keep the heat of politics in the country at room temperature. Nothing should happen that disrupts the balance. The smallest bump is more than enough to send the lorry off the road. They also know that an sy change forced by the opposition would ruin the whole script and there is no time to draw up a new roadmap. That is why the government is clinging with all its strength to the task of keeping the opposition under control. So much so that with the staff, money and energy they spend to keep the opposition under control one could run another medium sized European country.

THE REGIME AND ELECTION QUESTION

The AKP suffered its first major defeat in the 2019 local elections. The local elections took place as a kind of referendum on the Presidential Government System once again. And the public said by an overwhelming majority, “We do not want this regime.” But somehow, as Türkiye headed into the 2023 elections, this demand from the public was forgotten and the debate became who the opposition’s candidate within the regime would be. After Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy became clear the regime stopped being discussed and they entered a race of promises with Erdoğan. Today the public mood is not very different. According to opinion polls the share of those who are not satisfied with their situation and say this regime must change is in the 65 to 70 per cent range. But the opposition is again caught in alliance, election and candidate arguments.

Let’s underline once again that Erdoğan cannot avoid an election. One way or another there will be an election. That is why elections still matter. At the same time the political narrative built on the idea that all problems will be solved through elections and the ballot box is, to put it mildly, very incomplete. The problem has long gone beyond the question of who governs Türkiye. The issue has become what kind of future awaits Türkiye. A name will only have meaning when it is discussed within this horizon of the future.

WITHOUT BREAKING THE PATTERN

It is not only the government that has a script in Türkiye. The parliamentary opposition also has its own scripts. Even if the CHP has followed a line over the past year that has pushed its own limits it has not, as of today, reached a point that will shake the government. This is not something the CHP can handle on its own. There is a need for a political line that puts the problems society is living through at the centre and links those problems to the one man regime.

Only an approach that calls for rebuilding the future against those who turn everything into a single thing and tie the country’s future to the tail of the US for their own interests can break Erdoğan’s script. It can change the balance. The table and figures you see on the page present an unbearable picture of the world for millions. This cannot continue. But it will not change by itself either. The figures on the side are also the call of workers, women and children. This call is too strong to fit into a poll or the ballot box. There is no secret in Erdoğan that we do not know. What will disrupt the balance is hidden in the answer to this call.

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ACTION MUST BE TAKEN

We wanted to show Türkiye’s economic and social picture together with an election poll done 10 months ago. On its own this picture is not enough to change the country. Erdoğan has the comfort of setting the election timetable. He shapes his tactical moves accordingly. Knowing the government’s moves on its own is not useful. What matters is how those moves will be neutralised. That is why seeing the chart as a whole is more important than anything else.

Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Erdoğan’ın sırrı ne?, published in BirGün newspaper on February 5, 2026.