World Bank and TÜİK 's research: Turkey's skilled workforce is rapidly declining

The ‘Human Capital by Province 2021-2023’ study, jointly conducted by the World Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), revealed that Turkey's qualified, healthy, educated, and secure human capital is rapidly declining, falling well below the EU average.

The data shows that while human capital is declining across the country, Çanakkale stands out as the city with the highest human capital at the provincial level.

The Human Capital Index (HCI), developed by the World Bank, allows for the comparison of countries' future human capital and is rated on a scale of 0-1. Values close to 1 indicate that human capital is strong in that country, that future generations will contribute to the country's future, development, prosperity and progress through their advanced education, health, nutrition, personal qualities and skills, and that the country will rise globally.

However, data released on 19 September for the 2021-2023 period showed that Turkey's human capital index fell by 0.9 per cent compared to 2022, dropping to 0.690 by the end of 2023. Although the HCI was 0.693 in 2021 and increased by 0.5 per cent to 0.696 in 2022, it fell sharply in 2023 due to the severe human and economic destruction caused by the earthquake centred in Kahramanmaraş-Hatay on 6 February 2023. While the average HCI value for the 27 European Union member states was 0.730, approaching 1, Turkey lagged far behind the EU average.

ÇANAKKALE AND ANTALYA REACHED THE EU AVERAGE

The top three countries with the highest HCI among EU member states are Finland with 0.796, Sweden with 0.795 and Ireland with 0.793. In Turkey, the province with the HCI value closest to the EU average at the end of 2023 is Çanakkale with 0.781 points, followed by Antalya with 0.761, Erzincan with 0.756, Eskişehir with 0.755, and Rize with 0.749. The province with the lowest human capital index is Şırnak, with 0.599. Şanlıurfa, Ağrı, Muş and Gümüşhane are the other provinces with the lowest HCI values and the highest levels of hopelessness among young people among the 81 provinces. Other provinces where the BESE index has fallen below zero and declined sharply include Adıyaman, Manisa, Malatya, Hatay, and Kahramanmaraş.

NOT ENCOURAGING FOR TURKEY

In the World Bank's Global HCI data, which compares 174 countries, Turkey ranks quite low with a score of 0.690 at the end of 2023. Turkey shows a rather poor performance in the categories that make up the sub-components of the index as of the end of 2023. The survival sub-component decreased by 0.3 per cent to 0.985, while education fell by 0.8 per cent to 0.725 points. In contrast, health increased by 0.2 per cent to 0.966. This was due to the health services provided to thousands of injured people during and after the 6 February earthquakes and the life-saving efforts at the field hospitals set up.

The severe decline in Turkey's human capital was largely due to the devastating destruction caused by the 6 February earthquake, which severely damaged schools, hospitals and infrastructure, reducing hospitals and schools to rubble. However, the main reason for the significant decline outside the earthquake zone was the severe economic crisis that has persisted since 2021 without a solution.

High inflation, high interest rates, suppressed consumption and spending, low wages and salaries, and the fact that almost half of the country's population, particularly pensioners and minimum wage earners, are condemned to live below the poverty line are emerging as important factors.

YOUTH AND CHILDREN WITHOUT HOPE

The World Bank's index aims to “measure the human capital a child born today is expected to have accumulated by the age of 18, taking into account the health and education conditions prevailing in their country”. The sub-components of the index consist of three main measurements: survival, health and education from the age of five years and under. According to the data released, Turkey is in a process of decline in terms of the basic index value as well as the three components in question.

Surveys reveal that young people are pessimistic and hopeless about many criteria, including fundamental rights and freedoms, a decent standard of living, fair wages and livelihoods, quality education, finding employment easily after university, and not worrying about their future. Nearly 70 per cent of young people aged 18 and over who have graduated from university want to live abroad. Alongside youth unemployment, Turkey ranks first, well above the OECD and EU averages, in terms of university graduate unemployment. The young population, described as ‘stay-at-home youth’ and dependent on their families, is increasing exponentially every day.

MILLIONS OF CHILDREN UNABLE TO GO ON HOLIDAY

While Turkey's HCI data shows that the country's future is being seriously plunged into darkness, the picture is even more dire for the children who will form the youth of the future. The picture is quite bleak for the children who are the youth of the future. According to the official results of the Turkey in 2025 Survey conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), 32 out of every 100 children under the age of 15 in Turkey, totalling 7 million 39 thousand children, are suffering from hunger at levels comparable to African countries.

6.7 MILLION CHILDREN CANNOT EAT MEAT

Looking at the figures in terms of poverty and deprivation, 6.7 million children under the age of 15 cannot eat meat, chicken, fish or eggs once a day. 7.8 million children have never ridden a bicycle or skated in a park in their lives. 2.5 million children cannot afford a decent pair of shoes or new clothes to wear. Alongside poverty, they experience severe deprivation. 7 million children do not know what a birthday or a get-together with friends is; they are unaware of gathering with their friends to have fun on such a day. According to TÜİK data, 5.5 million children do not even have toys; they have never seen or held a toy in their lives. Approximately 4 million children cannot read age-appropriate books, novels, stories, magazines, comics, etc., and have no access to such cultural and educational activities.

One of the most alarming statistics is that 14 million children are deprived of cultural and artistic activities and sports opportunities in their free time. Millions of children, more than the population of most European countries, do not know what cinema, theatre or concerts are. They have never watched a match or sports competition at a stadium or indoor sports hall.

For 11 million children, holidays with their parents and siblings are nothing but a dream. They have no opportunity to spend a week's holiday away from home, or even to visit relatives in another city, let alone travel or afford the cost of the journey.

While 28.4 per cent of Turkey's total population is poor, child poverty stands at 35.3 per cent, 5 points higher. With its human capital rapidly eroding, Turkey ranks second among the 37 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in terms of child poverty, after Costa Rica.

Source: Dünya Bankası ve TÜİK araştırması: Türkiye'nin nitelikli insan gücü hızla eriyor