Turkey’s president and AKP forced to put on the brakes after Qatar crisis

YAŞAR AYDIN

yasaraydin@birgun.net / @yasaraydinnn

Turkey’s president and the chair of the ruling party AKP (Justice and Development Party) has been trying to shape the agenda during his speeches given in iftar programs. Perhaps, what he wanted the most when he resumed leadership of his party was a quiet period at home and outside so that he could take steps to further strengthen his rule. And, his plans for this were also ready. While provincial and district teams of his party were getting ready for changes, he was also going to make new arrangements in the Council of Ministers, just as he did with his party’s executive board. And, after adapting the changes in the parliament’s bylaws, he would have got the chance to move faster. But once again, his calculations did not match the times! The Qatar crisis began earlier and stronger than he had expected; and, it began with so many dynamics that will have an impact on Turkey. Consequently, Erdoğan once again had to review his program and make adjustments.

Qatar was unexpected

In light of economic and political stages experienced, Erdoğan had come to a conclusion that he had the power to make moves in his country. In economic terms, he took into consideration the inflation which was to decrease in summer months; the high probability of hot money flow to developing countries; and the loaded friends of his who he could turn to via Wealth Fund if he had got too stuck.

And, as for the political context, establishment of a phase of balance of powers in Syria was not demanding Erdoğan to rush into something new. Moreover, the current political route of the opposition parties at home was far from bothering Erdoğan.

So, in this regard, the Qatar crisis stands as a candidate for forcing Erdoğan into troublesome times not only in economic terms but also politically. Especially those who are in absolute partnership with the USA have announced, one after the other, their strong will to act in line over problems in the Middle East, starting from Syria. So, Erdoğan is also facing a risk of getting hung in the air in this regard, too.

What are the steps he is forced to postpone?

Erdoğan is almost the only ally of Qatar in the region. They have a series of economic and political relations that are tangled. This especially is preventing Erdoğan to take a step without taking Qatar into consideration. Also, regional affairs and Erdoğan’s approach to them actually determine his domestic politics and the actors that would put into reality his new policies.

As the backstage information from AKP side suggests, even the changes on the Council of Ministers can be postponed. From this, we understand that Erdoğan is so fragile in the face of international relations that he does not want to bother with a possible damage that a change of cabinet would bring about. Hoping that the Qatar crisis ends before Eid, Eroğan will just be killing the clock both within the party and the government until then.

Parliament may go on recess earlier

Since neither Erdoğan nor AKP seem to be willing to take steps until July, even an early recess for the parliament is talked about.

Meanwhile, this stage of ‘waiting’ has also spread on to the opposition parties with seats in the parliament. Main opposition party CHP does not take its activities beyond the parliamentary groups meetings held on Tuesdays. MHP, which is the party that is in alliance with the ruling party AKP, is just taking on the role of ‘preventing Erdoğan and AKP from getting off the track.’ HDP, on the other hand, is just closely monitoring the affairs related to Syria and Iraq, as well as, the AKP.

Currently, it is really difficult to understand if the political parties’ phase of ‘waiting’ is due to confusion or due to a desire to be sure before taking any steps. However, regardless of the reason for this waiting, it is revealed through the tension felt in Ankara that this waiting will not last long…

Front-page article of BirGün published on 12 June 2017, Monday with the title of ‘A forced braking on ambitions of the Presidential Palace by Qatar’

Source: https://www.birgun.net/haber-detay/saray-a-katar-freni-164078.html